As we predicted in our cover story, 'Kabila, king without a kingdom' (African Business November, 1997) the Congo is rapidly disintegrating. The knives are out to carve up this huge and potentially rich country. The scramble, however is sucking other Central and Southern African nations into a deadly confrontation and the economic implications for the entire sub-region are immense. Milan Vesely analyses the current crisis.

Fifteen months after the overthrow of Africa's longest reigning dictator Mobutu Sese Seko through a surprisingly short military rebellion, President Laurent Desire Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) must be having a strange sense of d?j?O vu. On Sunday 3 August, his former Banyalemunge rebels-in-arms returned the favour to him.

In a three week campaign to overthrow him, they fought their way into the eastern suburbs of Kinshasa, seizing Goma, Bukavu, Uvira and Kisangani in the east, and initially Kitona, Matadi and the Inga Dam hydroelectricity complex in the west. Leaping cross country in captured aircraft they reached Kinshasa's sprawling Njili airoport where only the intervention of Angolan, Zimbabwean and Namibian troops saved President Kabila from certain defeat.

A regional power struggle, the dismemberment of the Congo, and bitter disunity in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are the result.

"Kabila has failed to govern. In his one year in power he has done more political damage than Mobutu ever did in 32 years," Bizima Karaha, the ex-Kabila Foreign Minister and leader of the Tutsi dominated CDM rebels said in Goma, 5 August. "This is a countrywide revolution. People are disillusioned and angry."

Kabila's nephew, Congo's Justice Minister Mwenze Kongolo, disputes such rhetoric. Speaking to BBC radio on 5 August, he charged that: "This is a Rwandan invasion and Rwanda and Uganda are spearheading the invasion of the Congo."

Warning that Kigali would "regret it," government spokesman Didier Mumengi added: "Rwanda and Uganda are criminal states that have meddled in foreign affairs while drawing on a feeling of pity from the international community after the 1994 Rwandan genocide." Adding that the Congo would "extend the war into Rwanda" he raised the spectre of an all-Africa war.

American and European foreign policy officials are scrambling to re-group. Policies based on 'a renaissance of modern, forward thinking African leaders' are totally in shreds. Any semblance of a peaceful transition from despotic dictatorships to progressive and democratic African leaderships is gone. With the closing down of its Kinshasa, Accra, Ghana and Togo embassies albeit temporarily, the US seems to have all but washed its hands of Western Africa.

The chaos engulfing the DRC has been a disaster waiting to happen. "What we are seeing is the breakdown between Kabila and his Rwandan, Ugandan and US mentors," European Union Humanitarian Commissioner Emma Bonino said recently. "When the Congolese have to submit to a strongman instead of going for strong institutions, we are preparing the prologue to a tragedy foretold."

Commissioner Bonino's reference to US involvement is understandable. The US Special Forces' presence in Rwanda and Uganda is highly visible and has led to the impression that America gave at least tacit approval to the new rebellion. Reacting to persistent media reports of US troop support, the Pentagon's spokesperson, Colonel Nancy Burt confirmed on 6 August that a 20-man US military "assessment team" had indeed been at the Rwandan Gisenyi border post close to Goma at the time Rwandan military units were crossing into the DRC.

With President Kabila facing imminent defeat on 20 August, Zimbabwe, Namibian and Angolan troops entered the DRC. Under the guise of sister states of the SADC helping a legitimate government, Presidents Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Dos Santos of Angola added a new dimension to African conflicts.

Angolan armoured units have to all intents and purposes annexed Kitona, Matadi, and the Inga Dam hydroelectric power plant. Zimbabwean commandos control Kinshasa's Njili airport and key facilities. In the east, Uganda and Rwanda control the Kivu provinces through the CDM. The result is that the Congolese under President Kabila are no longer masters of their own territory. President Nelson Mandela's plea to the SADC states for a negotiated settlement has fallen on deaf ears.

This unprecedented military interference has exposed bitter regional rivalries. Justifying Zimbabwe's involvement and criticising President Nelson Mandela on 20 August, President Mugabe scathingly announced: "Those who want to keep out, fine. Let them keep out but let them be silent about those who want to help." Reports of South African arms supplies being flown to rebel forces in Goma followed within days. "Zimbabwe has no legitimate interests in the DRC," political analysts in Harare and Johannesburg insist. "Mugabe's involvement is a desperate act."

"Things are bad at home and Mugabe is seeking glory abroad but nobody is buying that," Charles Rukuni, publisher of the Zimbabwean Insider newsletter concurred. Corruption and mismanagement have decimated the Zimbabwe economy. President Mugabe is desperate for the $130m dollars owed to the Zimbabwe Defence Industry by the Kabila regime. That the majority shares in this company are owned by Mugabe family members and close associates is common knowledge.

Angola's Congo invasion in support of President Kabila has more fundamental reasons behind it. With future oil revenues depleted and facing Jonas Savimbi's resurgent UNITA, Angola's desperate measure to capture the Congo's main port and gateway to the sea is seen by US State Department officials as a permanent annexation.

"They desperately need the cash flow from the port and electricity generating facilities in this Congo corridor to bail them out and President Dos Santos has taken an unprecedented gamble," a US State Department analyst states on condition of anonymity. "Cutting off supply routes to UNITA and the Cabinda rebels is used as a justification but the real reason is financial."

Such coveting of the Congo's resources has led to the de facto establishment of two, and probably three new Congo republics, while enlarging Angola's control over the Congo River basin.

In announcing the rebels' intention to overthrow President Kabila, ex-Foreign Minister Bizima Karaha volunteered that the rebels are developing a new political structure for the Congo. "We need to set out a new vision for the Congo," he said, "a vision based on the future for all Congolese, regardless of their tribal affiliations."

What this new structure is to be and how it can be achieved in view of the bitter ethnic rivalries splitting the Congolese was left unsaid. Mai Mai fighters, Uganda's rebel Allied Democratic Front and Hutu Interahamwe rebels using the eastern Congo as bases from which to attack Rwanda and Uganda are certain to resist a Tutsi Banyalemunge leadership.

Having fought the Rwanda/Uganda governments to a stalemate they are expected to use the same hit and run tactics against any Banyalemunge authority in Goma, Bukavu and Kisangani. Continuing instability and bloodshed is therefore guaranteed to plague the mineral rich Kivu regions of the eastern Congo.

"Instead of appointing a government of national unity, Kabila has a government composed of members of his family," a rebel statement broadcast over the 'Voice of the People' in Goma stated on 5 August. Identifying Gaetan Kakudji, Kabila's cousin and Interior Minister, nephew Mwenze Kongolo, Justice Minister, and Joseph Kabila, Chief of Army Staff as examples, the rebel Congolese Democratic Movement used nepotism as their raison d'?tre for the new rebellion.

However, while President Kabila's nepotism is unparalleled, the Tutsi hierarchy in neighbouring Rwanda and Burundi have similar records. President Pasteur Bizuminga of Rwanda is considered by knowledgeable officials as nothing more then a figurehead while Vice President Paul Kagame wields all the power.

Burundi's President Buyoya is even more isolated. Surrounded by Tutsi military officers, his regime doesn't even bear the slightest semblance to a balanced Burundi political landscape.

North American corporations that rushed into Congolese mining ventures following the fall of Mobutu are now licking their wounds. Banro Resources Corporation, the operator of the nationalised Twangiza mining concession in Shaba province, had trading in its shares suspended on the Ottawa Stock Exchange on 1 August. It has now filed a $100m claim against the Kabila government in US courts. Others such as American Fields Mining have seen their costly African forays disintegrate.

Coming at a time of investor disillusionment and low mineral prices, this new instability will cripple foreign investment in future ventures, no matter what government is in Kinshasa.

The dismemberment of the Congo by its neighbours coveting its territorial and mineral resources may lead to the establishment of two, if not three, new Congo's. The US State Department has no love for President Kabila and sympathises with Uganda and Rwanda. Kabila's snub of Clinton's envoy Jesse Jackson, and his flirtation with Fidel Castro have raised hackles in the Clinton administration and among top CIA officials. China's strengthening influence in Congolese affairs is also of major concern.

The French, Belgians and South Africans have their own interests. The killing of a Belgian national by Congolese troops at a Kinshasa road-block caused consternation, and French businessmen have suffered harassment. South African diamond interests have been held to ransom and Kabila's snub of Nelson Mandela will have serious consequences, bearing in mind that South Africa has the continent's largest armaments industry.

Public disagreements between President Mandela and Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe all but destroyed the South African Development Community (SADC) and South African ire is understandable.

"Mugabe will rue the day he attacked Mandela personally," South African officials insist off the record. "From now on South Africa will become militarily involved. It is both financially and politically critical."

As such Rwanda and Uganda will be the main beneficiaries while UNITA, South Africa's long-term ally, will get renewed support. US support for Presidents Mandela, Museveni and Vice President Kagame is well known. The 5 August Reuters report of a 20 man American military assessment team sighted in Gisenyi, Rwanda adds credence to rumours of prior American knowledge of the new rebellion.

The new Congolese uprising has heightened American concern over Angola. With fighting between Jonas Savimbi's rebel UNITA movement and President Dos Santos' MPLA raging across the northern Angola/Congo border, senior officials believe that the two rebellions are connected. "Together with South Africa we are reassessing our position on UNITA," a State Department spokesman said on condition of anonymity. "We have to consider US interests first and with the Angolan army stretched thin, UNITA is expected to make a push on Luanda shortly."

The Congo's disintegration has also given Jonas Savimbi new allies in the form of the Katangese of Shaba province. Long desirous of their own independent state, the Katangese can be expected to support UNITA in exchange for military help in their own struggle for self-determination. Reports from diplomats and UN military personnel in Luanda indicate that the battle for the Congo could tilt the balance of power in Angola, and some observers are even predicting a UNITA government in Luanda within a year.

So will the Congo go the same way as Ethiopia and Eritrea have and Angola appears to be going? Will tribal affiliations and ethnic rivalries cause the permanent dismemberment of this potentially rich, territorially vast, and almost ungovernable nation?

"It is not unexpected that three new countries might emerge from the current upheaval," the same State Department official observed. "The Eastern Congo, potentially the richest and under the control of the ethnic Banyalemunge and Rwanda Tutsi, a new Katanga Republic, also mineral rich and satisfying Katangese aspirations dating back to 1960 and Moise Tshombe, and the Western Congo with Kabila as President. To the south in Angola, UNITA is now in a strong position to wear down the MPLA government by attrition or even form its own republic should a de facto partition of the Congo result. All that in one month!"

Congressional concern in Washington over US African foreign policy is now at fever pitch. If Africa had few friends in Congress before, it has even fewer now.

Foreign investment in African projects has suffered a serious set-back. Coping with its own 800 point fall on Wall Street, US financiers have even less interest in African investment and mining ventures than they did before. Canadian and US corporations will find it impossible to raise investment capital on the open market and the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, while totally unconnected, are also seen as negative investment factors.

On 8 September, a seven nation African summit on the Congo ended in failure when President Kabila refused to meet the rebels face-to-face. With South Africa conspicuous in its absence, the Victoria Falls summit, chaired by President Chiluba of Zambia was unable to get the warring parties to agree even to a cease-fire.

"We are going back to Goma to intensify our campaign against Kabila," Arthur Z'Ahidi Ngoma, deputy president of the rebel CDM told reporters on leaving. "There will be no cease-fire until Kabila negotiates with us directly."

Hopes for a speedy resolution now rest with the diplomatic initiatives of the SADC, chaired by President Mandela. Knowledgeable observers believe that even a partial cease-fire will only be acceptable to the warring parties once the financial costs of the conflict to Angola, Zimbabwe, Uganda and Rwanda become unbearable and military options no longer viable.

Meanwhile what remains of President Kabila's military is mobilised for a long and bloody struggle. The long-suffering Congolese population, used to such situations, can only watch, wait, and listen to what must seem an echo from the non-so-distant past. How many of them want to be citizens of new republics controlled respectively from Luanda, Harare and Kigali? No one has bothered to ask.

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