Disease Outbreaks in Iraq

File: 950901_0pgv072_90p.txt
Page: 90p
Total Pages: 1
Disease Outbreaks in Iraq

Filename:0pgv072.90p




SUBJECT:   Disease Outbreaks in Iraq
TO:
DOI: 21 FEB 90
ANALYST:                   [ (b)(6) ]


KEY JUDGEMENTS

       [ (b)(2) ]  assessment is that major disease outbreaks
currently have not occurred in Baghdad or Basrah. For severe
outbreaks to develop, a protracted war or more extensive
collateral damage would have to occur.

        However, conditions are favorable for communicable disease
outbreaks, particularly in major urban areas affected by
coalition bombing. Data necessary for determining expected
numbers and rates of cases are not available, and any estimate
would be totally unreliable.



COMMENTS

       Infectious disease prevalence in major Iraqi urban areas
targeted by coalition bombing (Baghdad, Basrah) undoubtedly has
increased since the beginning of Desert Storm. However, reporting
has been limited, conflictive, and non-specific, making the
actual levels are unclear; specific diseases, numbers of cases,
and groups affected have not been reported. Current public health
problems are attributable to the reduction of normal preventive
medicine, waste disposal, water purification and distribution,
electricity, and the decreased ability to control disease
outbreaks.

    Prior to Desert Storm, the Iraqi government broadcast several
public civil defense preparation statements. The language used in
some of the public health statements would allow the government
to propagandize increases of endemic diseases on military
conflict (and potentially on contamination by agents released as
a result of damage inflicted by coalition forces on CBW
facilities). Increased incidence of diseases in these cities is
assessed to be due to increased occurrence of endemic diseases.

       Recent Iraqi controlled news releases to Multi-National
Force audiences about the poor sanitary conditions in Baghdad is
considered biased. Reportedly, the Iraqi government has denied
ICRC staff into Iraq to evaluate current health problems
(presumably the ICRC staff could refute the "deplorable"
conditions). In contrast, broadcasts to "friendly" Arab countries
have painted a "life as normal" situation in Baghdad.



SUBJECT:   Disease Outbreaks in Iraq          cont.
DOI: 21 FEB 9O

    Generalizations can be made on the most likely diseases to
occur in significantly elevated or outbreak proportions over the
near-term.



MOST LIKELY DISEASES DURING THE NEXT 60-90 DAYS (DESCENDING
ORDER)

      - Diarrheal diseases (particularly children)
      - Acute respiratory illnesses (colds and influenza)
      - Typhoid
      - Hepatitis A (particularly children)
      - Measles, diphtheria, and pertussis (particularly children)
      - Meningitis, including meningococcal (particularly
children)
      - Cholera (possible, but less likely)



MOST LIKELY DISEASES DURING THE FOLLOWING 90-180 DAYS

      - Diarrheal diseases (particularly children)
      - Acute respiratory illnesses (colds)
      - Typhoid
      - Hepatitis A (particularly children)
      - Conjunctivitis (Eye infections)
      - Measles, diphtheria, and pertussis (particularly children)
      - Cutaneous leishmaniasis
      - Meningococcal meningitis (particularly children)
      - Malaria
      - Cholera (possible, but less likely)


Note: Filth fly populations can be expected to increase to high
levels in warmer months, but their contribution to disease
transmission is limited. The more proper analogy to make is that
the circumstances that create favorable conditions for diarrheal
diseases are the same that are favorable for massive fly
populations. However, flies do not cause that much disease.