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KOSOVO AND METOHIJA IN NUMBERS



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THE POPULATION IN KOSOVO AND METOHIJA
(present by mid-1998)

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The last census, implemented under the supervision of Federal and Republican organs, which may be considered objective, is the one of 1961. This census registered 646.605 Albanians. The censa of 1971 and 1981 were implemented under the supervision of the Kosmet organs. In the 1981 census, the cooperation of the Republican organs was explicitly rejected, with the excuse that the statistical organs of the Republic are not competent for the implementation of the census in Kosovo and Metohija; separatists demonstrations took place during the census.

Since the 1981 census, there are no exact data about the national structure of the population of Kosovo and Metohija.

When interpreting the reproduction of the Albanian population, some comparisons impose themselves. First of all, one should compare the pace of renewal of the population in the Entire area populated by Albanians, i. e. see whether there exist some differences, and what are the differences in the reproductive behavior of the Kosmet Albanians, in comparison with their compatriots in Macedonia and Albania.

If we take as parameter the population in Albania, then, according to that base, which increased, according to the Albanian official data 2.9 times since 1945, we must conclude that the Albanian population in Kosovo and Metohija increased 2.5 times at most, during that same period. This is due to the fact that the living standard in Kosovo and Metohija is much higher and that women are far more emancipated. If we decrease that number for the rather great number of members of the Albanian national minority who left, during a long time period, Kosovo and Metohija because of economic reasons, we get an estimate of 917.000 members of the Albanian national minority in Kosovo and Metohija today.\

The confirmation of this statement, namely that there are no more than 900.000 Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija is obtained in the recent census in Macedonia (1994). According to the jointly implemented census in 1991 in 1991, there were 427.313 Albanians in Macedonia. The Albanian sources offered several times assessments saying that there are some 600.000, maybe even 800.000 Albanians in Macedonia; that there are 200.000 Albanians in Skoplje only, etc. However, the newest census, in 1994, showed that the optimum number would be somewhere around 484.000. Namely, in order to make it comparable to the previous censa, all persons residing abroad were included in this number, although they should have been excluded, according to the international criteria.

 

The effect of the rigorous procedures of control under the supervision of the international community, and of the strict respect of the rules of census (according to which two census takers visited all households, one Albanian, and one non-Albanian), was such that the number of registered Albanians was far below the announced by the Albanians before the census. The application of the same principles in Kosovo and Metohija will confirm the assessment presented here.

 

The Albanian population in Macedonia increased from 197.389 in 1948, to 377.208 in 1981, which means 1.9 times. According to the data supplied by the organs of the Province, during that same period the number of Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija increased from 498.242 in 1948, to 1.596.072 (1981), which would mean a 3.2 times increase. Such a difference can not be explained by any rational arguments, for it would mean that the Kosmet Albanians reproduced themselves 1.7 times more rapidly than those in Macedonia.

 

Since this is the same geoethnic area, since the conditions of life are similar, the rates of growth of Albanians, Roms and Turks must be similar.

 

However, if we compare the rates of natural growth of Albanians, Roms and Turks in the period 1981-1990 in Macedonia and in Kosovo and Metohija, we will see that the results look like comparisons between different peoples in different countries.

 

The Rates of natural growth 1981-1990

Makedonia
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Kosovo and Metohia

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In Macedonia, the number of newly arrived Albanians decreased from 22.2 to 1.000 Albanians to 19.7 in 1981. However, the natural rate of growth of Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija was shown by the figures obtained in the controversial census, as 27.6 in 1981, which means that the Albanian population to 1.000 grew by 4.5 persons more in Kosovo and Metohija in comparison with Macedonia, which is highly improbable. This difference was then even increased in individual years, so that in 1984 there were even 9.3 persons more per 1.000, 8.;3 persons in 1987, etc.

 

It is a well known fact that the Roms have the highest birth rate and the highest rate of natural renewal. The comparison between Macedonia and Kosovo and Metohija "denies" such a statement. The natural rate of growth of the Roms in Kosovo and Metohija was almost twice smaller (17.4), than that in Macedonia (30.7). The situation with the Turks is similar. The number of Turks in Kosovo and Metohija decreased from 34.500 in 1953 or 25.700 in 1961 to only 10.500 in 1991.

 

At the basis of the above mentioned data, we can conclude that almost the entire population growth of Roms and Turks in the Province was ascribed to Albanians. Therefore, we could assume that there are twice as many Roms and Turks than it is shown by the figures about their number and natural rate of growth; the Albanian population must be decreased for that number.


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