Nine countries - China, France, Israel, the UK, the USA, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Ukraine and Russia - have nuclear weapons. At the beginning of 1991, their arsenals contained a total of nearly 50,000 nuclear weapons. The former Soviet Union had about 25,000 nuclear weapons, the USA had about 20,000, France had about 600, China had about 300, the UK had about 400, and Israel had about 150 nuclear weapons.
In September 1991, President Bush announced significant unilateral cuts in America's nuclear arsenal. In October 1991, President Gorbachev responded by announcing significant cuts in the Soviet nuclear arsenal. These unilateral cuts followed limits on strategic nuclear weapons already agreed by the USA and the USSR in the START Treaty, signed in mid-July 1991.
The START Treaty limited Soviet and American strategic nuclear arsenals to a total of 6,000 'accountable' nuclear warheads. Of these, 4,900 can be carried by strategic missiles - land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). There is a sub-limit of 1,100 warheads carried by mobile ICBMs.
The remaining 1,100 accountable warheads can be carried on strategic bombers, as free-fall bombs, air-launched cruise missiles, and short-range attack missiles. Bomber-carried nuclear weapons are not directly accountable on a one-to-one basis but are counted by a complex formula. This allows strategic bombers to carry relatively large numbers of nuclear warheads, while keeping within the accountable limit of 1,100.
For example, a future American strategic bomber force of 75 B-2 bombers and 96 B-1B bombers (each carrying 16 nuclear bombs and short-range attack missiles) plus 95 B-52H bombers (each carrying 20
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air-launched cruise missiles) would carry a total of 4,636 nuclear warheads on 266 delivery vehicles but would be within the 1,100 'accountable' warhead limit.
Together with the 4,900 nuclear warheads allowed on ballistic missiles the post-START American nuclear arsenal could contain a total of about 9,500 nuclear warheads. The pre-START (mid-1991) American strategic nuclear arsenal consisted of a total of 11,966 nuclear warheads, carried on 1,000 ICBMs, 608 SLBMs, and 268 strategic bombers. The ICBMs carried 2,450 warheads, the SLBMs carried 5,216 warheads and the bombers carried 4,300 warheads.
In mid-1991 the USA deployed three types of ICBM - Minuteman II, Minuteman III and MX - and three types of SLBM - Poseidon C3, Trident I and Trident II. Apart from the Minuteman II, all the ICBMs and SLBMs carry multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). American B-52 G/H and B-1B strategic bombers carried free-fall nuclear bombs, short-range attack missiles and air-launched cruise missiles.
The pre-START Soviet strategic nuclear arsenal consisted of a total of 10,880 nuclear warheads, carried on 1,334 ICBMs, 914 SLBMs and 106 strategic bombers. The ICBMs carried 6,280 warheads, the SLBMs carried 3,626 warheads and the bombers carried 974 warheads.
In mid-1991 the Soviet Union deployed seven types of ICBMs - SS-11 Sego, SS-13 Savage, SS-17 Spanker, SS-18 Satan, SS-19 Stiletto, SS-24 Scalpel and SS-25 Sickle - and five types of SLBM - SS-N-6 Serb, SS-N-8 Sawfly, SS-N-18 Stingray, SS-N-20 Sturgeon and SS-N-23 Skiff. Soviet Tu-95 Bear and Tu-160 Blackjet strategic bombers carried free-fall nuclear bombs and air-launched cruise missiles (International Institute for Strategic Studies 1991).
The START Treaty required the USA to reduce the number of its ballistic missile warheads by about 35 per cent and the Soviet Union to reduce the number of its ballistic missile warheads by about 48 per cent. In terms of strategic nuclear delivery systems (ICBMs, SLBMs and bombers), the USA was required to reduce its number by 19 per cent, and the Soviet Union was required to reduce its number by about 32 per cent. And the treaty required the Americans to reduce the number of nuclear warheads in their arsenal by 20 per cent or more. The Soviets were required to reduce the number of nuclear warheads in their arsenal by 34 per cent or more.
The START Treaty required the Soviet Union to reduce its 'heavy' SS-18 Stingray ICBMs, each carrying 10 MIRVS and regarded by the Americans as the most threatening strategic ballistic missile in the Soviet arsenal, by 50 per cent and the total ballistic missile throw-weight by 46 per cent (the treaty limited each side to a throw-weight of 3,600 tonnes). The Soviets had to reduce the number of their SS-
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18s to 154 and agreed to eliminate twenty-two SS-18s a year for seven years.
Sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) were not limited by the START Treaty, but each side made politically binding declarations about SLCMs carrying nuclear warheads with ranges over 600 kilometres. Both agreed not to deploy more than 880 of them. Pre-START, the USA had deployed 367 SLCMs and the USSR had deployed 100 SLCMs.
The number of tactical nuclear weapons in the American nuclear arsenal in mid-1991 was about 8,000, and there were reported to be about 18,000 in the nuclear arsenal of the former Soviet Union. Of the American tactical nuclear weapons, about 4,000 were deployed in NATO Europe (including about 1,500 artillery shells, 662 Lance sur-face-to-surface missiles and 1,400 aircraft bombs) and about 2,500 in naval warships (including about 1,400 aircraft bombs, 325 Tomahawk sea-launched cruise missiles and 800 anti-submarine warfare bombs) (Norris et al. 1991).
Soviet tactical nuclear weapons included some 11,000 land-based systems (3,000 surface-to-air missiles, 3,000 surface-to-surface missiles, 3,000 aircraft bombs and 2,000 artillery shells) and about 3,000 tactical nuclear weapons carried in naval ships (about 1,400 aircraft bombs, 570 cruise missiles, 420 anti-submarine warfare weapons, 520 torpedoes and 200 surface-to-air missiles).
The limits on strategic nuclear weapons set in the START Treaty were rapidly overtaken by the surprise announcement by President Bush of unilateral changes to be made to the American nuclear arsenal and the responding announcement of similar changes to the Soviet nuclear arsenal announced by President Gorbachev. The unilateral cuts in the American nuclear arsenal include the elimination of nuclear artillery and short-range surface-to-surface missiles. In addition, all tactical naval nuclear weapons are removed from warships and put into store. After the President's statement, NATO announced that the number of tactical aircraft nuclear bombs deployed in Europe would be halved (to about 700).
So far as American strategic nuclear weapons are concerned, strategic bombers are taken off alert and Minuteman II ICBMs removed from operational service. The President also wants the next START Treaty (START-2) to negotiate away all ICBMs equipped with multiple,
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independently targeted re-entry vehicles and suggested that the USA and Russia developed joint defences against ballistic-missile attack.
The impact of President Bush's initiative will be to destroy 3,050 tactical nuclear weapons (1,300 artillery shells, 850 Lance surface-to-surface missiles and 900 naval nuclear depth charges), and to withdraw and store 1,275 tactical nuclear weapons (350 SLCMs and 925 naval nuclear bombs). In addition, 2,690 strategic weapons will be taken off alert (including 450 ICBM warheads and 1,600 SLBM warheads). If ICBMs with multiple warheads are banned, another 1,500 warheads will be removed, excluding the 500 which would probably have been removed under START. The Bush initiative leaves unaffected 3,840 Trident SLBMs (Arms Control Association, October 1991).
President Gorbachev's response to the Bush initiative matched the American unilateral cuts and also suggested deeper cuts. Soviet nuclear artillery and short-range surface-to-surface missiles were eliminated. Strategic bombers were taken off alert, 500 ICBMs and three strategic nuclear submarines carrying SLBMs were taken out of active service, and all mobile rail-based ICBMs put into store. All tactical naval nuclear weapons were removed from warships and put into store and nuclear surface-to-air missiles destroyed or stored.
Other Soviet unilateral moves included stopping the development of three new strategic ballistic missile systems and a one-year moratorium on nuclear-weapon tests. President Gorbachev wanted START2 to cut strategic nuclear weapons by a further 50 per cent. He also suggested negotiations to remove all tactical nuclear weapons on aircraft (bombs and missiles) and the multilateral negotiation of a comprehensive nuclear test-ban treaty, and was prepared to discuss with the USA the development of joint defence against ballistic-missile attack.
The Gorbachev initiative could reduce the Russian tactical nuclear arsenal by 10,000 land-based weapons (artillery shells, surface-to-sur-face missiles, nuclear mines and surface-to-air missiles), and 2,000 sea-based warheads. Some of these weapons would be destroyed and some put into storage. Gorbachev also proposed to remove, on a bilateral basis, nuclear bombs and missiles from tactical aircraft. In addition, Russian strategic warheads would be reduced unilaterally to 5,000 - 1,000 fewer than the 6,000 accountable warheads allowed under START (Arms Control Association 1991).
Deep cuts in Russian and American nuclear arsenals will have ramifications for the other nuclear-weapon powers. As the Russian and American nuclear arsenals are reduced, those of China, France and the UK will become relatively more significant. Sooner or later, there
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will have to be negotiations about the future size and quality of all the arsenals. In the meantime, China, France and the UK intend to modernize their nuclear weapons (Norris et al. 1991).
The current British strategic nuclear force consists of four Polaris strategic nuclear submarines, each carrying sixteen SLBMs. Each SLBM carries three multiple re-entry vehicles, for a total of 192 nuclear warheads. In addition, the British have about 200 tactical nuclear weapons - about 175 land-based aircraft bombs and 75 naval nuclear depth bombs.
The British have announced reductions in the number of nuclear bombs deployed on tactical aircraft and the removal of naval nuclear weapons from all warships. But they plan to replace their Polaris submarines with four new Vanguard-class strategic nuclear submarines, each carrying sixteen American Trident SLBMs. Each SLBM may carry eight warheads, for a total of 512 nuclear warheads, a considerable increase in the size of the British strategic nuclear arsenal. The British are also considering a new tactical air-to-surface missile, to be developed in collaboration with France or the USA but with a British-designed nuclear warhead, to replace obsolete free-fall bombs on aircraft.
French strategic nuclear forces consist of five strategic nuclear submarines, each carrying 16 SLBMs, for a total of 400 nuclear warheads. In addition, the French have 18 land-based strategic missiles, each carrying one warhead and 18 nuclear weapons (air-to-surface missiles) carried on Mirage IV-P strategic bombers. Tactical nuclear weapons include about 75 land-based aircraft bombs, 40 Pluton surface-to-sur-face missile-launchers, and about 24 naval air-to-surface missiles.
French plans to modernize their nuclear forces have yet to be finalized. It is probable that land-based strategic ballistic missiles will be withdrawn. The Mirage IV-P bomber may be replaced with the Raphael D/M. The Pluton tactical missiles will be phased out and some replaced with a new surface-to-surface missile, the Hades.
Early next century the French strategic forces could contain 960 warheads on SLBMs and British strategic nuclear forces could contain 512 warheads on SLBMs, for a total of nearly 1,500 strategic warheads (BASIC, November 1991). The combined British and French nuclear arsenals could contain a total of about 2,000 tactical and strategic nuclear warheads by this time.
China has 8 ICBMs and 60 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, each equipped with one nuclear warhead. One strategic nuclear submarine carries 12 SLBMs, each with one warhead. China has up to 120 medium-range bombers, each carrying one or two nuclear bombs. China may be modernizing its ICBMs, making them solid-fuelled and
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equipped with MIRVs, and may be developing a more modern strategic nuclear submarine and a new bomber.
Israel's nuclear weapons are deliverable by aircraft and Jericho-II surface-to-surface missiles, The 1,500-kilometre-range Jericho missile is being further developed.
There is no doubt that the far-reaching nuclear disarmament now envisaged is an extraordinary and very welcome development, unbelievable only a short while ago. But many of the nuclear weapons removed from the arsenals by the Bush - Gorbachev initiatives are obsolete and would have been eliminated anyway. If all the proposals are carried through, the Russian and American nuclear arsenals will be reduced from a mid-1991 total of about 45,000 operationally deployed warheads to less than 6,000 operationally deployed warheads, an extraordinary amount of nuclear disarmament, reducing the strategic nuclear arsenals to levels far closer to a minimum nuclear deterrent. It is, however, unlikely that such deep cuts will be achieved before the year 2000. But the fact that the process is underway considerably improves world security.
There were significant differences in the Gorbachev and Bush announcements. The Americans were anxious to remove the threat of Soviet heavy accurate land-based ICBMs fitted with MIRVs. The Soviets were anxious to stop the modernization of American nuclear warheads and the development of new types of nuclear weapon by banning testing.
The Americans, however, intend to continue their modernization programme and, therefore, to continue testing. Although the Americans have abandoned plans to make their MX ICBMs rail-mobile, they intend to continue the development of the single-warhead Midgetman mobile ICBMs. The Midgetman is unlikely to be operational until 1997.
The American advantage in strategic nuclear submarines is likely to continue. The American strategic submarine fleet in the late 1990s may consist of 18 Trident submarines, each with 24 SLBMs, each SLBM carrying 8 warheads, for a total of 3,456 nuclear warheads. Ten Trident submarines are already operational or under construction.
The Russian strategic submarine fleet in the late 1990s may consist of 9 Delta III submarines (each with 16 SLBMs, each SLBM carrying 3 warheads), 10 Delta IV submarines (each with 16 SLBMs, each SLBM carrying 4 warheads), 6 Typhoon submarines (each with 20 SLBMs, each carrying 5 warheads), for a total of 1,672 warheads.
The concentration of strategic nuclear forces into submarines is a step in the right direction. For the time being, strategic nuclear sub-
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marines are relatively invulnerable so that an effective nuclear first strike will not be feasible, and nuclear war much less likely. A breakthrough in anti-submarine warfare technology might, however, make strategic nuclear submarines vulnerable and give the power that achieves it a strategic nuclear superiority.
The changes taking place in the Russian and American nuclear arsenals will make it difficult for the lesser nuclear-weapon powers to increase significantly the size of their nuclear arsenals, and one must, therefore, expect that some of the plans of these powers to do so will be modified. Research into and the development of nuclear weapons and their supporting technologies will almost certainly continue in all the declared nuclear-weapon powers. The quality of nuclear weapons will, therefore, continue to improve, activities that will be justified as 'essential modernization'.