The 1991 Gulf War focused attention yet again on the morality and wisdom of the arms trade. Saddam Hussein imported virtually all the conventional weapons he used to fight his wars with Iran and Kuwait. Some forty countries sold weapons to Iran and Iraq during their war, some of them selling weapons to both sides. Without the arms trade, Saddam Hussein could not have become a significant military power.
The arms trade fuels regional arms races. Whether or not these arms races are a direct cause of war is not known. But it is certain that, once conflict breaks out, the sophisticated weapons acquired through the arms trade considerably increase the level of conflict. Almost all of the 200 or so wars fought since the Second World War have been fought with weapons imported from the industrialized countries.
Some 20 million people have been killed in these wars. The arms-sellers must take some responsibility for these deaths. Countries with even the most appalling human rights records have no difficulty buying weapons abroad, including weapons used to quell public protests and demonstrations.
The arms trade is unwise because weapons sold to other countries may be used against one's own troops. For example, the UK sold many major weapons and much military equipment to Argentina before the Falklands War. Many of the British servicemen killed in the war were killed by British weapons. Similarly, some of the coalition servicemen killed during the Gulf War were killed by weapons supplied by one or other coalition country.
The number of countries producing arms has been steadily increasing since the Second World War. In 1945, only five countries - Canada, Sweden, the USA, the USSR and the UK - had the capacity to develop and manufacture major weapons. Today, over fifty countries do so. (The most detailed information about the global arms trade is pub-
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lished by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. An annual arms trade register is published in the SIPRI yearbook. The information about the arms trade in this chapter comes mainly from SIPRI sources.)
The main industrialized arms-producing countries are: China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, the USA and the former Soviet Union. The main arms producers in the Third World are: Argentina, Brazil, India, Israel, North Korea, South Africa, South Korea and Taiwan. Two of the hundred largest arms-producing companies are Indian, two are Israeli, one is Brazilian, one is South African and one is South Korean.
The top eight Third World arms-producing countries produce some 90 per cent of total Third World major-weapon production (Brzoska and Ohlson 1986). Another eighteen Third World countries produce some types of major weapon. Whereas the top eight industrialized arms producers make nearly 600 types of major weapon (about 230 types of aircraft, 70 types of armoured vehicle, 150 missiles and 150 warships), the top eight Third World producers make some 140 types of major weapon (about 65 types of aircraft, 15 types of armoured vehicle, 30 missiles and 30 warships).
Of the Middle Eastern countries, for example, Algeria indigenously designs and produces warships; Egypt indigenously designs and produces helicopters, strike aircraft, armoured vehicles, surface-to-air and anti-tank missiles, and warships; Iran indigenously designs and produces helicopters; and Israel indigenously designs and produces transport aircraft, multi-role combat aircraft, fighter aircraft, armoured vehicles including main battle tanks, and warships.
In addition, a variety of weapons are produced in the Middle East under licence from other countries. Egypt produces aircraft under licence from Brazil and France, anti-tank missiles under licence from the UK, and main battle tanks and surveillance radar under licence from the USA; Iran produces surface-to-surface missiles under licence from China; and Jordan produces helicopters under licence from the USA.
Israel's armaments industry is large enough to sell significant amounts of weapons abroad: air-to-air missiles to Argentina; ship-to-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and missile-armed fast patrol boats to Chile; multi-role combat aircraft and ship-to-air missiles to Colombia; fast patrol boats to Sri Lanka; air-to-air missiles to Thailand; and transport aircraft to Venezuela. Israel has issued licences to Belgium to produce Israeli battlefield radar and to the USA to produce point
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defence radar and air-to-surface missiles. Iran is trying to export a variety of artillery rockets.
Egypt, Iran and Israel have stated their intention to continue to develop their arms industries. In particular, they intend to develop military electronics programmes. But neither the Arab countries nor Iran can yet produce large quantities of major weapons; nor can they produce very sophisticated weapons. Israel, on the other hand, produces very sophisticated weapons - such as the Kfir multi-role combat aircraft - which compete with the most sophisticated American weapons. There is, therefore, a considerable imbalance between the arms-production capabilities of the Arab countries and those of Israel.
It should be noted that attempts to restrict the development of Iranian and Iraqi arms industries during the Iran - Iraq War by denying them components failed dismally. It is hard to believe that efforts to restrict the development of indigenous Middle East arms industries during peacetime will be any more successful. We must expect Arab arms industries to expand steadily. But the imbalance between them and Israeli arms industries will remain for the foreseeable future. The Arab countries will want to continue to redress the balance by buying arms abroad.
Argentina and Brazil are the main arms producers in Latin America. Argentina produces a variety of military aircraft including trainers and counter-insurgency aircraft; armoured vehicles, including armoured personnel-carriers and tanks; air-to-surface missiles and anti-tank missiles; and warships, including frigates and submarines. Brazil produces helicopters, trainers, transport aircraft, counter-insurgency aircraft and marine patrol aircraft; armoured vehicles, including armoured per-sonnel-carriers; air-to-air missiles, air-to-surface missiles and anti-tank missiles; and warships, including frigates and submarines.
The main Asian Third World arms-producers are India, North Korea, South Korea and Taiwan. India produces a variety of aircraft, including helicopters, transport aircraft, counter-insurgency aircraft, trainer aircraft and fighters; armoured vehicles, including armoured personnel-carriers and main battle tanks; missiles, including air-to-air missiles and anti-tank missiles; and warships, including destroyers and submarines. North Korea produces main battle tanks and small warships. South Korea produces helicopters, fighter aircraft, armoured personnel-vehicles, submarines and small warships. Taiwan produces fighter and trainer aircraft, armoured personnel-vehicles, surface-to-surface missiles, ship-to-ship missiles, anti-tank missiles and small warships.
South Africa produces a range of armoured vehicles, including armoured cars and armoured personnel-carriers; missiles, including air-to-air missiles; and small warships.
Domestic arms production is encouraged by the increasing tendency
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of the main suppliers to manipulate arms supplies for political, economic or military reasons. Countries like South Africa and Taiwan have found it so hard to buy weapons that they have decided to produce their own. Countries like Israel refuse to depend on others, even if they have dependable suppliers.
Of the $1,000,000 million given each year to the world's military, some $250,000 million goes on buying weapons. Producing and selling weapons is the world's second-biggest industry, after oil (which, for comparison, grosses roughly $430,000 million a year). Of the weapons produced by the world's weapons industries, about $60,000 million worth are traded annually in the global arms market.
The SIPRI arms trade registers show that in the past five years no less than 132 countries (out of the total of about 160 countries in the world) imported major conventional weapons (armoured vehicles, missiles, combat aircraft and warships) (SIPRI 1991). The USA exported major weapons to 77 countries, France exported major weapons to 73 countries, the UK to 49 countries, the USSR to 38 countries, Italy to 35 countries, China to 22 countries, Germany to 31 countries, the Netherlands to 15 countries, Sweden to 11 countries and Czechoslovakia to 10 countries.
The former Soviet Union and the USA have been the biggest arms traders, together supplying about 70 per cent of the major weapons sold abroad. The Soviet Union accounted for about 38 per cent of the global arms trade during the past five years; the USA accounted for about 31 per cent. The second-rank arms traders are France, which accounted for about 9 per cent of the global trade in major weapons during the past five years; the UK, which accounted for about 4 per cent; China, about 4 per cent; and Germany, about 3 per cent. These six arms exporters account for about 90 per cent of the global arms trade during the past five years.
Where do the exported weapons go? There has been a major change in the pattern of arms sales in recent years (Anthony et al. 1991). The industrialized countries are increasingly important arms-importers. The sharc of the rich countries in the global arms trade has increased from about 33 per cent in 1987 to 50 per cent in 1989. Increased imports by Japan and - despite the end of the Cold War - the NATO countries mainly account for this trend.
Third World countries are less inclined to buy arms because of the
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debt crisis, declining oil prices, the ending of some significant wars (such as the Iran - Iraq War and the fighting in Angola) and the expansion of some Third World domestic arms industries.
The former Soviet Union sold most major weapons to the Third World during the past five years, accounting for about 44 per cent of the weapons sold, The USA accounted for about 20 per cent of sales of major weapons to the Third World; France accounted for about 11 per cent; China for about 6 per cent; and the UK for about 5 per cent. The other significant suppliers were Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Brazil and Israel, together accounting for about 7 per cent of the total. These top ten suppliers accounted for about 93 per cent of the major weapons sold to the Third World during the past five years.
The top ten suppliers of major weapons to the industrialized countries during the past five years were: the USA (about 47 per cent); the former Soviet Union (about 30 per cent); France (about 5 per cent); Germany (about 5 per cent); the UK (about 3 per cent); Czechoslovakia (about 3 per cent); Sweden (about 1.5 per cent); Canada (about 1.5 per cent); Poland (about 0.7 per cent); and Italy (about 0.6 per cent). These ten suppliers account for about 97 per cent of the major weapons sold to the industrialized countries during the past five years.
About 80 per cent of Soviet arms exports over the past five years went to nine countries: Afghanistan, Angola, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, India, Iraq, North Korea, Poland and Syria. Japan, Spain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, West Germany and Israel were America's main customers. Saudi Arabia, India, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates were France's main customers. And Saudi Arabia and India were Britain's main customers.
It should be noted that in 1990 the value of Soviet arms exports sharply decreased. Compared to earlier years it roughly halved and, for the first time for nearly a decade, the Soviet Union took second place to the USA in the rank order of arms exporters. In 1990, I. S. Belousov, Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the USSR, stated that Soviet weapon exports had been much reduced during the current five-year plan. Missiles, he said, were reduced by 64 per cent, ships by 56 per cent, aircraft by 53 per cent, artillery by 48 per cent, and tanks and armoured personnel-carriers by 25 - 30 per cent. The longer-term contribution of the former Soviet Union to the global arms trade is impossible to predict or even speculate about.
A relatively few countries are the main importers of arms. The four leading importers - India, Japan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq - accounted for 30 per cent of the major weapons transferred during the past five
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years. The next six leading importers - Afghanistan, Czechoslovakia, Egypt, North Korea, Poland and Spain - accounted for another 20 per cent. The next five importers - Angola, Greece, South Korea, Syria and Turkey - accounted for another 11 per cent, so that the top fifteen importers accounted for nearly two-thirds of the major weapons transferred abroad.
In the industrialized countries, the major importers of major weapons during the past five years were: Japan (accounting for about 16 per cent of the total), Czechoslovakia (about 8 per cent), Spain (about 8 per cent), Turkey (about 7 per cent), Poland (about 7 per cent), Canada (about 5 per cent) and Greece (about 5 per cent). These seven countries account for about 56 per cent of the total imports of major weapons into industrialized countries. Seven other countries (Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, the former Soviet Union, Bulgaria, Hungary and Yugoslavia) account for about another 25 per cent.
In the Third World, the leading importers of major weapons during the past five years were India (accounting for about 16 per cent of the total), Iraq (about 11 per cent), Saudi Arabia (about 8 per cent), Syria (about 6 per cent), Egypt (about 5 per cent), North Korea (about 5 per cent) and Afghanistan (about 4 per cent). These seven countries account for about 56 per cent of the total. Angola, Libya, Taiwan, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea and Israel together account, roughly equally, for about another 20 per cent.
Within the Third World, the Middle East is by far the most active importing region. During the past five years, for example, about 41 per cent of the major weapons transferred to the Third World went to the Middle East. South-East Asia accounts for about another 24 per cent; the Far East accounts for 16 per cent; Africa for 11 per cent; and Latin America for 8 per cent. In the next few years, the countries of the Indian sub-continent and South-East Asia are expected to increase their share.
The motives for selling weapons vary. The USA has done so mainly to gain political or economic influence in Third World regions or to acquire military bases abroad. The former Soviet Union had similar motives. The smaller suppliers believe that arms sales help their economies, particularly in times of recession.
A most important factor is that the major powers can afford to buy appropriate quantities of major weapons for their own arsenals only if they achieve the economies of scale to be had from long production-runs By selling weapons abroad countries reduce the costs of those same weapons for their own armed forces. Maintaining and increasing
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arms sales is, therefore, crucially important for the governments of the major exporters of weapons.
Pressure to export weapons will increase as military budgets in the USA, the former Soviet Union, and eastern and western Europe decrease as the Cold War ends. Arms industries will look to exports to increase sales as domestic orders decrease. Domestic orders alone will, for many arms companies, be insufficient to allow them to survive. Also, companies want to recover the enormous research-and-development costs involved in designing and building modern weapons.
For these reasons, commercial firms apply considerable political pressure on governments to persuade them to grant export licences for their wares. Many governments are only too willing to comply. Often civil servants from the major arms suppliers ply their wares abroad. In the UK, for example, the Defence Sales Organization in the Ministry of Defence energetically promotes British arms exports and, in France, the Directorate for International Affairs in the Defence Ministry has the same promotional task.
The dismal failure of previous attempts at controlling the global arms trade - such as President Carter's programme of restraint, announced in May 1977, and the Soviet - American Conventional Arms Transfer Talks in the late 1970s - demonstrate the power and effectiveness of the vested interests - industrial and governmental - in the industrialized countries intent on maintaining and increasing the lucrative arms trade.
The sale of arms is used by the major powers to retain and expand political influence in a given region. Supplying weapons is seen by the major arms suppliers as a way of achieving this foreign-policy goal. There are also resource-related motives for selling weapons to certain Third World regions. To ensure oil supplies, for example, is an obvious reason for supplying weapons to Middle Eastern governments.
The motives for buying arms also vary. Some countries do so because they have real, or perceived, security needs. Arms are seen to be needed to deal with internal or external conflicts in which military force may be required. A vicious circle may then be established. When one country acquires sophisticated weapons its neighbours may feel threatened and will want similar weapons. An arms race then begins.
Third World countries with military governments are particularly good customers for arms. Military leaders usually want the most sophisticated weapons because they are the most glamorous. Other Third World governments need the political support of senior military officers and can get this support only by satisfying the military demands for the latest weaponry. Some countries - such as Israel -
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have a sublime faith in the superiority of technology, including military technology, and feel secure only when their arsenals contain the most sophisticated weapons.
The latter motive for importing weapons has been enhanced by the experience of the Gulf War. The systematic destruction of Iraq by high-technology weapons, and Iraq's inability to respond, left few in doubt about the overwhelming superiority of the military technology of the industrialized powers. The war demonstrated for all to see that recent advances in military technology have given the military extraordinary new capabilities. Other countries are anxious to acquire these capabilities by buying high-technology weapons.
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