The Gulf War heightened concern over the global spread of sophisticated weapon-delivery systems. But there is most concern about the proliferation of missiles, particularly ballistic missiles, enhanced by Iraqi Scud surface-to-surface missile attacks on Israel and on coalition forces in Saudi Arabia.
Ballistic missiles are ideal systems for delivering weapons of mass destruction, particularly over long distances. In fact, given the cost of ballistic missiles and the relatively small payloads they carry, it is hardly worth acquiring them just to deliver conventional warheads.
Not only are more countries acquiring missiles through the global arms trade, but several Third World countries are also able to design and manufacture them indigenously. The more producers there are, the easier it is to acquire missiles, either in the global arms trade or illegally. Currently, twenty Third World countries either possess ballistic missiles or are trying to develop them. These are Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Greece, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, South Yemen, Syria, Taiwan and Turkey (Karp 1991).
It is not unreasonable to worry about the possibility that sub-national groups will, in the future, acquire and use ballistic missiles as delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction. This risk is obviously enhanced if significant numbers of ballistic missiles are deployed by many countries.
The extent to which ballistic-missile production has already spread into Third World countries is shown in Table 4.1 (Karp 1991). The Third World countries producing short-range missiles are shown in Table 4.2. Imported ballistic missiles in service are shown in Table 4.3.
Before the Gulf War, Iraq was making rapid progress in the development of several types of ballistic missile. North Korea has shown significant expertise in ballistic-missile development. Not only is it manufacturing Russian Scud missiles but it is also developing the Scud-PIP (Scud Product Improvement Programme), having a
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maximum range of about 500 kilometres. This development is noteworthy because North Korea is reported to have developed chemical warheads for its ballistic missiles and is suspected of developing nuclear weapons.
Some Third World countries are developing sounding rockets, for use in researching the properties of the upper atmosphere, and space-launch vehicles, to put satellites into orbit. Both of these technologies
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provide countries with the capability to produce long-range ballistic missiles. The rockets used in these civilian activities are, in fact, basically similar to military missiles.
Brazil, India and Pakistan have each developed two types of sounding rockets; and Indonesia is developing one type. Israel has developed a space-launch vehicle and has actually launched two satellites into orbit. Brazil, India and Taiwan are developing space-launch vehicles. South Korea and Pakistan plan to do so.
India and Israel are making steady progress with their missile pro-grammes. But in the other countries ballistic-missile programmes have been slowed or stopped altogether. Argentina's Condor programme, for example, has been shelved but it could be restarted in the future.
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