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Global Strife Could Widen Africa's Geopolitical Rifts

Business Day (Johannesburg)
NEWS
November 12, 2002
Posted to the web November 12, 2002

By Francis Kornegay
Johannesburg
HOW does one make sense of events in Africa in terms of the continent's
interaction with the rest of the world?
One way is to look at developments unfolding along Africa's east-west axis:
east toward the Red Sea, the staging ground of the US global war on terrorism;
and west toward the oil bonanza in the Gulf of Guinea, tempting the US and
other western powers.
These are joined by Col Muammar Gadaffi's Community of Sahel-Saharan States.
Against this one may glean the "big picture" forming the backdrop to the local
turbulence in east and west Africa and the scope of US engagements in Africa.
Instructive is the unmanned Central Intelligence Agency drone that assassinated
senior AlQaeda official Qaed Salim Sinan al-Harethi and his five companions in
Yemen. This operation highlights the tiny coastal statelet of Djibouti, a
cockpit of northeast African and Red Sea diplomacy, and the possible base from
where the drone took off.
In recent months, there has reportedly been a steady build up of US forces in
the Djibouti coastal town of Obock. They may soon number more than 2000. Gen
Tommy Franks, commander of the US central command, has said the troops are "to
work with countries in the Horn of Africa".
Speculation is that their mission may be part of an eventual "pre-emptive"
campaign against Iraq, which could transform the global oil market. Djibouti
denies its territory is being used for this, but one analyst said: "You don't
train in Obock for three months in 110° temperatures if it isn't going to be
for Iraq."
The US military build-up in the region comes amid simmering tension over
Eritrea's growing isolation. It feels threatened by Ethiopia, Sudan and Yemen
amid the uncertain Sudanese peace process being orchestrated by the
Intergovernmental Authority for Development. Part of Eritrea's problem stems
from an insurgency in eastern Sudan allied to Khartoum's main foe, the Sudanese
People's Liberation Army.
Also, Eritrea feels threatened by US criticism of its human rights record and
by the recent establishment of an opposition government-in-exile in Ethiopia.
So in spite of the United Nations border presence, Ethio-Eritrean relations
remain hostile.
The Sudanese dimension of these tensions, represent the eastern extremity of
Muslim/ non-Muslim divides, extending westward to the oil-rich Gulf of Guinea,
and forming geocultural division in major sub-Saharan like Nigeria and Côte
d'Ivoire.
The political mismanagement of this diversity is at the heart of the stand-off
in Côte d' Ivoire, between the regime of President Laurent Gbagbo and the
Patriotic Movement of Côte d'Ivoire. It is a continuation of the unresolved
controversy relating to Gbagbo's election in 2000.
The discriminatory "Ivorite" policy, which was used by the late Gen Robert Guei
to disqualify the candidacy of opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, was
compounded by Gbagbo, whose party benefited from the uprising against Guei's
attempt to steal the election.
Gbagbo could have defused this tension by allowing a rerun of the election as
advised by other African leaders, including Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo and
SA's Thabo Mbeki but he stonewalled. Now Côte d'Ivoire is on a knife's edge.
As a peacekeeping force of mainly francophone troops, under the Economic
Community of West African States (Ecowas) prepares to deploy in Côte d'Ivoire,
the US will provide much-needed airlifts and logistical support.
Apart from some pro-Israeli lobbyists in Washington proposing incorporation of
the Gulf of Guinea into a new south Atlantic security system, US military aid
to Ecowas is a positive, noncontroversial contribution to west African peace
and security.
Aside from the north-south, Muslim/non-Muslim tensions in Côte d' Ivoire which,
reflected in reverse in Nigeria, are complicating Obasanjo's political life a
security challenge might be looming in the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria and Cameroon
are at odds over the Bakassi Peninsula.
Unless it and Cameroon find each other on the Bakassi dispute, the
international oil stakes in this region may invite external powers into a
dispute that would best be resolved by Africans.
As the continent's heartland shows fitful signs of stabilising, much of its
future may be decided along its east-west axis of inter and intrastate religio-
ethnic conflicts; these in turn, interacting with local and international
scrambles for Africa's natural resources against a global backdrop of the war
on terrorism.
Kornegay is Programme Co-ordinator, Centre for Africa's International
Relations, University of the Witwatersrand.

   

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