[allAfrica.com] Is Uganda Ripe for War? a Controversial View From the Colonel The Monitor (Kampala) OPINION December 11, 2002 Posted to the web December 11, 2002 Kampala On November 25, exiled former presidential candidate Col. (rtd) Dr. Kizza Besigye issued a 9-page document discussing whether the conditions in Uganda are ripe for war. The document, now being widely distributed on the Internet, indicates a hardening attitude by Besigye and raises issues that Ugandans need to be informed of and to debate - and perhaps thus help avert another armed conflict. The likelihood of a new armed rebellion in Uganda has been widely and intensely discussed since the rigged 2001 elections. This debate was enhanced by the escape of dissident senior UPDF officers to Rwanda, and subsequently by my own escape from Uganda. It has also been fanned by Uganda Government's panicky, clumsy, and hasty actions and utterances depicting the existence of a very threatening situation. From this debate, I find that two pertinent questions arise: Is armed rebellion (war) appropriate or necessary in the present Ugandan situation? Can armed conflict (war) and the attendant violence lead to a peaceful, stable, and democratic society? I would like to contribute my personal views in response to the two questions by first making a brief reference to the central issues of WAR, PEACE and DEMOCRACY generally, and then focusing on the Uganda situation. From the onset, it ought to be emphatically pointed out that the dynamics within and between societies and states are very complex and highly differentiated. There are no two situations that are similar or that progress in the same way under similar circumstances. A fundamental weakness to be found in assessments and engagements made by people or organisations attempting to advise or influence situations within or between societies and countries, is the inadequate understanding of the dynamics of those situations. A common attraction is to recommend what worked in a situation that appears similar. Reference to situations in specific societies or countries therefore, ought to be treated as an attempt to provide a segment of the scope of possibilities. In the end, each situation is guided by its own internal dynamics and the particular societies involved. Broadly, wars within and between societies and countries (including the two world wars) can be traced to one or a combination of the following causes (random order): Quest for freedom and human dignity. Justice- especially in reference to equality and equity. Popular sovereignty- including patriotism, nationalism, and secessionism. Militarism- referring to the concept of relying on the military to settle conflicts within or between societies and countries, that (for governments) leads to the expansion of the military resources, resulting a situation similar to the "arms race". Power-driven charisma of a leader- who incites the population against some external threat (mob action), in order to expand his/her power and influence. Imperialism- the acquisition of new territories for resources and markets. Economic pressure- especially arising from having a large population compared to the size of the economy. War- by creating conditions that encourage more war, especially through adversely affecting the creation of wealth, producing large sections of unemployable people because of having no, or, relevant skills- sometimes referred to as a "lost generation", and a large number of war veterans whose view of the world is ossified in militarism. An example is that second World War was in part due to the effects of the first World War. As long as the conditions exist in a manner and magnitude exceeding the threshold for the parties involved, war will result. War may actually erupt when the conditions for it do not exist, usually through the actions of "war- mongers", but such a war is short-lived as it can not be sustained. Whatever the causes, course, or even result of any war; the effect on the affected society or country is great and long lasting. The serious and most constant consequences include: Loss of lives and maiming- that can assume frightening proportions. Disruption and destruction of the social infrastructure. Increase in the incidence and prevalence of disease and malnutrition, while the resources to needed to cope would have been reduced. Child neglect and trauma. Increased brutality and violence in the society. Latent animosity on the part of the defeated. Large section of the society without employable skills- "lost generation". Poverty- through, among other things, disruption of the economic infrastructure, disruption of the production processes, destruction of property, wastage of land due to the threat of land mines, increased public expenditure, diversion of resources from development to war expenditure, and the attendant increase in taxes. Militarism- war tends to concentrate power in the hands of the few- the powerful and the violent. War- war creates conditions for more war. The gravity of the consequences of war on society is of such intensity that everything should be done to avoid it. I have lived through the recent wars in Uganda first as a civilian onlooker (1978/9), then as combatant freedom fighter (1982-1986), and lastly as a military officer in the national army. When I talk about the effects of war, I do so, not only with the benefit of personal experience, but also with the emotion that inevitably accompanies such an experience. Intrastate (civil) wars are especially inclined to highly internecine practices. Skeletons and other signs of atrocities will definitely be found on both sides of the conflict, with the magnitude forming the only possible difference. Certainly, I would never initiate or join a war situation unless it cannot be avoided. I can only participate in war which has been imposed on me. Whereas the consequences of war are very grave indeed, it should also be clear, that they only amount to a cost. If the need justifies the cost therefore, then the cost, however high must be paid. What is the situation in Uganda today? It is my humble contention that all the eight conditions listed above as being conducive for war exist in Uganda. They are present in such a magnitude that does not only explain the presence of war in the country, but also suggests a strong likelihood of more wars. One could write whole volumes on each cause to show its nature, extent, and examples, however, for the present purpose it suffices to expound on only the following freedom and human dignity, justice- especially in respect of equality and equity as well as popular sovereignty. In the next part of this article, the author tackles the individual conditions he thinks have brought Uganda to what he oblique calls the point of no return. He makes reference to confrontations in India, China and elsewhere, and has a decisive if subtle call on Ugandans.   =============================================================================   Copyright © 2002 The Monitor. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). =============================================================================