[allAfrica.com] [Vanguard,_Lagos] Emergency Rule: States to Watch Daily Champion (Lagos) ANALYSIS May 21, 2004 Posted to the web May 21, 2004 By SIMON IBE Lagos THE state of emergency slammed on Plateau State by President Olusegun Obasanjo on Tuesday must have sent cold shivers down the spines of some state governments across the country. Those states that must have been rattled by the development are those that are crisis-prone, especially those of them whose governors may have records that are considered not entirely palatable in the view of the presidency. While proclaiming the state of emergency on Plateau State, the President had cited, not only the ethno-religious crisis in the Yelwa-Shendam area of the state that has resulted in the loss of lives and property, but also the past misconducts and lack of capacity of the state governor, Chief Joshua Dariye, "to promote reconciliation, rehabilitation, forgiveness, peace, harmony and stability." He pointed to the governor's trips abroad, which were embarked upon without authorization and noted that it was a combination of the governor's incompetence, bias and insensitivity that led to the escalation of the crisis to the point of total breakdown of law and order. The spill over effect of the mayhem in the Yelwa-Shendam area in Kano State and the likelihood of its further spread to such other states as Kaduna, Bauchi, Taraba, Gombe, Benue, Nassarawa, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Imo and Abia, the nation's first citizen argued, necessitated the imposition of the state of emergency. He used the same speech to hand on a stern warning to other state chief executives: "As I have advised all governors in their capacity as Chief Security Officers of their states, they are held responsible for breaches of security in their respective states. No excuse will be tenable for such breaches. Henceforth, Governors will be held accountable." The President's riot act is not being taken lightly by several governors. Indeed, apart from civil rights leaders, lawyers and others who have pointed out that the action was only a pointer to what is to come, some governors, especially those presiding over crisis-prone states and their supporters must already be bracing up in anticipation of the hammer which might fall their way next. For instance, the entire Niger Delta region but especially Delta, Bayelsa and parts of Rivers states have been in the throes of violence for as long as can be remembered, but certainly, long before the coming of the present democratic dispensation. Thousands of lives have been lost and billions of naira worth of property destroyed by the restive youths of the area. In Delta State, for instance, the blood letting has not only been between such ethnic groups as the Itsekiri, Urohbor and Ijaws but has only recently involved some foreign oil workers. In fact, presently, a military task force is in control of the Warri area of the state where kidnapping of oil workers, hijacking or occupation of oil installations and vandalization of pipelines and other facilities is the order of the day. The governor, Chief James Ibori, has done all in his power to restore peace in the state, he is still in the process of reconciling the warring ethnic groups and pacifying the restive youths but because the issues over which the people are agitating, including what they perceive as unfair treatment by both the governments and the oil companies, are considered fundamental by them, analysts say that the threat or even actual imposition of a state of emergency may not be enough to contain the crises in Delta State or, indeed, the entire Niger Delta region. Commentators easily point at Delta State as one of the states that the President may turn to with his big stick of state of emergency, especially also as there are widespread speculations that though Chief Ibori is in the same Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) as president Obasanjo, they are not the best of friends nor are they in the same political boat. Besides these sentiments, Delta State, which is one of the largest oil producing states is of too much economic significance to the country to be allowed to become ungovernable, because if such happens and the oil companies pull out of the state, the country would lose enormous resources. Kano State is also endangered. Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, the governor of the usually volatile state is of the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), the main opposition party to the ruling PDP. The Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was once harassed in the state and serious anti-government rallies, riots and pronouncements have been recorded in the state. Whenever there was any ethno- religious conflicts any where in the country, its reverberations were usually felt in the easily combustible states, hence the President's warning, directed at Kano, among the other crisis-prone states. It is believed that if Kano State should give the federal government the slightest excuse to do so, the hammer of emergency rule would also come crashing upon it because then, the PDP federal government can at least have a sole administrator that would guarantee that the state would no longer be "enemy" territory for the ruling party and its functionaries. Benue State is another state that is almost always boiling. Communal clashes that have claimed thousands of lives have occurred in the state and between it and other neighbouring states. The most remarkable incident of blood bath was the Zaki Biam reprisal attack mounted by the military against the community for the killing of some soldiers by militant youths of the community. The reprisal consumed several lives and left the community desolate. Just before the last local government elections, parts of the state were also engulfed in violence and many believe that the elections are linked to the recent close shave of the governor, Mr. George Akume. His convoy was attacked and a member of the PDP's Board of Trustees, Mr. Andrew Agom, who was sitting beside him was killed. Since after the election and up till date, there are allegations that violence is still sweeping some parts of the state that was once part of Plateau state. A PDP state, it is the home of the Chairman of the party and it is unlikely that a State of emergency would be imposed here, but that is if the violence is controlled to the barest minimum. Another candidate that may qualify for the emergency treatment is Lagos State. This is because the state, known otherwise as the "Centre of Excellence" has had a history of violent inter-and intra-ethnic outbursts. It is also one of the most volatile states, especially when there are anti-establishment protests, strikes or rallies. Indeed, parts of the state have been engulfed in riots that led to the loss of lives and property in the past and there is no guarantee that there would not be another spark that would lead to another conflagration in the "state of aquatic splendour." And this may be all that the federal authorities would need to clamp down on the state that president Obasanjo had once described as a jungle. But close watchers of the politics of Lagos State say that violent outbursts may not be the only reason why the PDP federal government would want to descend on the only remaining Alliance for Democracy (AD) - controlled state. They say that the governor of the state, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has been a thorn in the flesh of the PDP as a result of his principled positions on such issues as the creation of new local governments, allocation of more revenue to the state, the convocation of a Sovereign National Conference (SNC), true federalism and introduction of state police. Not long ago, the National Vice Chairman of the PDP for the South West zone, Chief Olabode George, who is also from Lagos State, was quoted as threatening the governor over his alleged abuse of the President and Chief George. Tinubu has denied the charge, but many still say that the PDP government may have laid an ambush for him, not only to silence one of the only strident voices of opposition to the PDP's policies but also to ensure that the President's home base, the South West zone is totally under the control of the PDP. But would these and the other governors wait to be swept aside by the storm of state of emergency without putting in place strategies to avoid the same fate that befell Dariye? Commentators say that this is most unlikely. Most of the governors have continued to shout that calling them chief security officers without them being in control of the police commands in their states was an anomaly akin to being generals without troops. While they continue to agitate for this situation to be redressed, some of them are under different guises, organising their own security outfits or working closely with their states police commands to ensure that they are on top of the security situation in their states. Their governors' forum, which is headed by Akwa Ibom State governor, Obong Victor Attah, which met yesterday in Abuja, is also believed to be articulating responses to the threat that is starring them in the face, which is made more potent by the fact that the leadership of the National Assembly is working closely with the presidency and the leadership of the PDP and would most likely endorse whatever action the president takes as regards any of the crisis-prone states. How far they can go to ward off another proclamation of state of emergency is left to be seen, but one thing that analysts say is certain is that the governors in these crisis-prone states are going to become more desperate to enforce peace in their states and that they, to escape the looming hammer, may begin to wield their own big sticks.   ===============================================================================  Copyright © 2004 Daily Champion. All rights reserved. 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