[allAfrica.com] [Africa_2004] Waiting in the Wings As Congo Wobbles The Monitor (Kampala) COLUMN June 25, 2004 Posted to the web June 24, 2004 By Izama Angelo Kampala The likelihood of open war breaking out in the Democratic Republic of Congo is increasing after ethnic tensions similar to those that sparked off the 1994 Rwandan genocide took hold of the southern city of Bukavu early this month. While Bukavu is undoubtedly the flashpoint for the recent clashes, analysts suggest that the current tensions, which include accusations and counter accusations of war between Rwanda and DRC, are a test to the unity government in Kinshasa as well as the capacity of the UN Peace Mission in Congo (Monuc) to keep various warring factions from a repeat of the 1998-2000 war, which drew six nations in a bloodbath in Congo's jungles. An estimated 3.3 million people died. Conflict in DRC may be a complexity generated by a failed state but it has certainly been made worse by politically insecure neighbouring governments of Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. This week the man who once again brought attention to Congo by taking over Bukavu on June 2, Gen. Laurent Nkunda, was reportedly in Kampala to call for an independent investigation into "massacres and murders" of ethnic Tutsi also known as Banyamulenge in Bukavu. Nkunda a former Rwandan Patriotic Front fighter and serial adventurer based in North Kivu, has called for dialogue with Kinshasa. According to Nkunda, the Kinshasa government had dispatched a man called Mbusa Mabe widely known in Congo for his murderous past record, to target Banyamulenge. The Nkunda mystery visit to Kampala, according to several sources was an attempt by Western diplomats to bring him to a negotiated peace with DRC President Joseph Kabila with whom he has had an acrimonious relationship. Insiders say the Bukavu clashes were provoked essentially because Gen. Nkunda and fellow Banyamulenge officer Col. Jules Mutebusi refused to report to Kinshasa under the unity government there. Nkunda's claims that ethnic Tutsi are being targeted have been dismissed by Monuc but are perhaps the dynamo, which could drive the justification for conflict in the ethically polarised east Congo. Kigali's position Rwanda claims to have legitimate security interests in DRC. While Kigali commemorated the one-decade anniversary of the 1994 genocide in March this year, there were already several clashes in the Kivu, which were blamed on the re-arming of ex-Rwanda army officers, and civilian Hutu militia (Interahamwe). The Kigali regime of President Paul Kagame is weary of the Interahamwe. Kagame's Tutsi minority government, to quote Charles Muligande Rwanda's Foreign Minister, "shall not sit back and watch" the DRC troop build-up in the South". The current fluid situation triggered off by the Bukavu crisis does not necessarily mean trouble for Rwanda but could instead be the fuse for pre- emptive action. The weakness of a strategy of pre-emptive action is that Rwanda could lose the international sympathy it enjoys particularly from Britain and the USA. However the ruse could still succeed if the global community is led to believe Rwanda has been provoked by an aggressor. The provocation can be made more credible by the genocide allegations against the Banyamulenge, a theme tied to Rwanda's recent bloody history. The public relations savvy Kigali regime may have backed off from immediate action when the takeover of Bukavu by Gen. Nkunda received all round condemnation. Nkunda, already cited for crimes against humanity by Human Rights Watch, is the least credible witness to the crimes against " his people". A new international twist to Rwanda's strategy may be what would be considered as attempts by the French government to draw the world's attention to the role of Kagame's Rwandan Patriotic Front in the 1994 genocide by seeking to stick counter-genocide claims against the Kigali regime. On the eve of the genocide memorial this year, a report by a French Judge surfaced with claims that Kagame had ordered the shooting down in the late Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana's plane, an event widely believed to have sparked of the 100 day genocide. The allegations, never proved, received a harsh response from President Kagame. He accused French forces of direct participation in the genocide. President Joseph Kabila's government has already requested the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate crimes against humanity committed "any where" in the Congo. ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo, has taken special interest in the Ituri region where Human Rights Watch has reportedly provided a briefing, which probably includes alleged crimes committed under the watch of Ugandan and Rwandan troops. Rwanda will probably hold her peace until another opportunity to play victim in the current war games. Kinshasa situation A coup attempt this June against Kabila was quickly put down. Opposition politicians said the coup was orchestrated to give Kabila more powers and delay elections. Kabila may not be blamed for trying to keep a tight reign on Congo's alliance of ex-belligerents. Most observers described Congo's peace process as fragile, however a national war against a perceived enemy in the south could be both a reason for Kabila to remain in power. Perhaps the present hostilities, which are dressed as a war against dissidents Gen. Nkunda and Col. Mutebusi also provide Kinshasa with a political opportunity to regain a foothold in the mineral, reach south. If Kabila's strategy crystallises around military action it could plunge the Congo into a drawn out war that could see old alliances renewed and new ones formed primarily for economic reasons. South Africa has developed substantial economic interests in DRC and Tanzania. It has reportedly pledged troops in support of Kabila. New alliances may change the fortunes of DRC, particularly that of President Joseph Kabila. Kampala watches A third term project in Uganda is a major diversion for President Museveni's government. However Uganda's volatile political situation could have made it increasingly vulnerable to widely held fears that hostile political forces would speed up recruitment of men at arms to militarily destabilise Uganda from its western border with Congo. Considering that an invasion from the border area (where skirmishes with alleged rebels of the Allied Defence Forces (ADF) and so called Peoples Redemption Army (PRA) have already occurred) is more dangerous than Uganda's engagement with LRA, a more permanent solution to the Congo threat is desirable. Uganda, however, cannot risk her international reputation any further after the United Nations pinned several senior military and government officials of plundering the Congo, and alleged atrocities against the population in areas before she pulled out her troops in 2002. A political failure in Uganda would turn another Congo war into a misadventure for the political elite who would be hounded by international agencies around the world for crimes committed. However if Uganda were provoked to act in self-defence, she could re-enter Congo prepared to avoid past mistakes. Control of the Eastern Congo also means her mineral wealth can be used to provide (albeit illicitly) more cash to strengthen the current government's military and political hold on the country. A lot can be gained however if a political quick fix prevents further hostilities in the Bukavu area. There would be no fight and perhaps Kabila can turn to more non-violent strategies to consolidate the gains of peace in the one-year transition over which he presides. Mr Izama is Acting news manager Monitor FM   =============================================================================   Copyright © 2004 The Monitor. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). =============================================================================