[allAfrica.com] [Africa_2004] Sudan Government At Critical Point, Africanist Warns United States Department of State (Washington, DC) NEWS September 27, 2004 Posted to the web September 28, 2004 By Charles W. Corey Washington, DC Prendergast says Khartoum can choose intransigence or cooperation The government of Sudan is facing the most critical juncture in its 15-year history: choosing either intransigence or cooperation in dealing with the international community, says career Africanist John Prendergast. In a September 22 address before the Darfur Policy Forum, hosted by the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, Prendergast contrasted the costs of taking the path of intransigence, which he termed "catastrophic," with the "immense" benefits accruing to a cooperative approach. Prendergast, currently special adviser to the International Crisis Group and a former State Department adviser and National Security Council director for African affairs, warned that if the Khartoum government continues down its chosen path of intransigence, the consequence will be major escalation of conflict throughout the country. "We are going to see the Darfur war [escalate over and above] the ethnic cleansing campaign that has occurred. We will see the Sudan People's Liberation Army [SPLA] war resume. We will see Lord's Resistance Army [LRA] attacks intensify in northern Uganda and southern Sudan. We will see war fronts in the Nuba Mountains and southern Blue Nile, and most likely [they will] open up in Eastern Sudan. And the southern Sudanese population will no doubt pressure very hard their leadership in the SPLA for a unilateral declaration of independence. So a lot is at stake." The other path is one of cooperation, which, he said, "the Sudan government could choose if its calculation drove it to this end result." Such cooperation, he added, "would allow peace to be secured ... by the end of this year -- peace in the South and the Nuba Mountains and the southern Blue Nile, through the Naivasha" accords. The international community needs to keep a close watch on the Sudanese government's continued obstruction of the final deal in Naivasha even as world attention is turned to the urgent situation in Darfur, he said. At the same time, a watch must be maintained on how the Khartoum government is harboring the Lord's Resistance Army leadership, as well as on the government's support to militias throughout the South that serve to foment intra-South divisions, just as they have created divisions within Darfur. Prendergast, who just returned from the Sudan-Chad region, called such actions an old tactic that the Sudanese government has employed many times before. Meanwhile, he said, the Sudanese government is using the African Union- supervised peace talks in Abuja to "tie the disarmament of the Jingaweit to the cantonment [placement in camps] of the rebels." What is coming out of Abuja, he said, is the "public relations spin" that the rebels will not sign a humanitarian assistance protocol. "The truth is, there are two things that need to be signed: issues that deal with humanitarian assistance and protocols that deal with civilian protection. In the view of the rebels, this has to be a package," he stressed. The Sudanese government, he said, continues on its current path because it operates "on the calculation that most countries and most international institutions -- if not all of them -- will not apply anything more than rhetorical pressure on the regime." There are two obstacles to putting meaningful pressure on Khartoum, Prendergast explained: the "natural and paralyzing" divisions that exist in the international community towards Sudan, and a mistaken analysis that a broken Sudan will leave chaos and extremism in its ashes, "which undermines a more robust response." Prendergast said the current international policy of "constructive engagement" that offers incentives but applies no pressure in trying to entice the regime into moderating its behavior -- rather than pushing it to do so -- has produced "disastrous results." The real lessons of the past 15 years must be learned, he said. "Targeted multilateral pressures that are backed by punitive action move this regime. They are survivalists ... pragmatic. ... They are not the Taliban, and they are not Saddam Hussein." A clear message must be sent by the international community that the days of total impunity for Sudan are over, he declared, and an international commission should be deployed by the United Nations to monitor the situation there. In 21 years of war in southern and central Sudan and throughout the situation in Darfur, the U.N. Security Council has not imposed an arms embargo on the government of Sudan, but it has levied one against the rebels, who are probably the only group that "has the capacity to protect civilians in Darfur today," he said. In addition, Prendergast called for an "asset freeze" to be imposed on companies the Sudanese regime owns and operates for business abroad, which "would have a significant impact on the actions of the regime. ... I think we have to go back to that strategy and isolate these guys and say there is a cost" to acting like this. "If we don't act, I am sure the Khartoum regime will chose the wrong path!" 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