[allAfrica.com] [http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0921/p07s01-woaf.html?s=swAfrica] If Not for Oil, Would Obasanjo Act? This Day (Lagos) OPINION October 8, 2004 Posted to the web October 8, 2004 By Eziuche Ubani Lagos President Olusegun Obasanjo has spoken sparingly on the threat from Alhaji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, and his Niger Delta Volunteer Forces (NDVF). This is ominous. He is yet to tell of the source of what has been described as the alternative (probably more credible) security report, which obviously compelled him to negotiate. Which is out of character. But you can guess that the gesture to send a presidential jet to fetch a man who is pursuing self-determination from the creeks from where Obasanjo fought the Biafran rebellion, was not a statesmanly gesture. It was not an act of love for the people of the Niger- Delta. And by no means, judging from the character of the Nigerian state, can we say it stems from a discarding of its grand ideology of violence. Far from that. Afterall, the Nigerian state had dispatched army, navy and airforce personnel to hunt down Dokubo and his forces and battle had been joined. Obasanjo was compelled to act out of character because of oil. Asari-Dokubo came close to this interpretation, even though he didn't seem to understand the profoundity of his statement and the latitude it gave him in the conflict. At a rally in Port Harcourt a few days ago, he said "Asari-Dokubo spoke and oil prices went up." That may be an unnecessary and infact, premature triumphalism that seems to trivialize a phenomenal conflict. But even in that hilarity, it is easy to extract that the need to secure oil prices, and keep the supply routes safe, is at the soul of this volte face. How do we know the state of the world? The advent of the new-conservative government led by George Bush in the United States has made oil prices unstable. Almost all the oil producing countries are in great turmoil. The count is frightening. Iraq is in crisis and is not about to return to stability any time soon, especially if Bush wins on November 4. Al-Qaeda's war inside Saudi Arabia continues to make the energy market nervous. Terrorism in Russia and the designs by Vladimir Putin to renationalize oil resources, through the destruction of Yukos, has further muddied the market. Violence is reducing in Algeria, but it cannot be said that the country has completely returned to peace. Of all the major oil producers, Nigeria was the only one, that pretended to be at peace with itself. It was the only place from where the oil traders could put a green bar on their charts. But all that changed, once Dokubo and his confederates issued their declaration to blow up oil installations all over the Niger-Delta. If the Niger-Delta went up in smoke, it held very grave consequences for just one thing - energy costs, which the controllers of contemporary world do not trifle with. It is easy therefore to see that, the alternative intelligence report must have been given from outside to achieve one purpose - to ensure that oil prices do not climb further. At least in the short term. At least to hold it down until the conclusion of the presidential elections in the United States. It is easy to see that even the philosophy of the so-called peace deal betrayed that. People have hailed the Obasanjo Administration for the truce. That is hasty because, there is an unmistakable impression that the Federal Government limited its role to mediator and not a protagonist in the conflict. Government brought in the forces of Ateke Tom, Dokubo, and elements in the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC). They were made to forgive each other. The Federal Government ran away as mediator between Dokubo and the Rivers State Government, which is the basis of the statement that the Rivers State Government will be made to work to alleviate the hardship of the people of the state. If it is now mediator, it means it can when the time is right, weigh in and clobber any recalcitrant party. But you wonder how these answer to the monstrous problems of the Niger-Delta, which connects directly to the National Question. For now, government has done well to stave off a bloodbath. But I am not quite sure that the problem is about to be resolved. My fear arises from the character of the polity and our experience in the past. The Nigeria state is so heavily mindless, that it does not, and will not pretend to exist for the Nigerian people. It is to put it mildly, a predatory state, which exhausts its people, and preys on their resources. No where is the evidence of this exploitation so glaring and so numbing than in the Niger-Delta. This state is controlled by a generation of few individuals. The basis of their power, their claim to enterpreneurship is their control of the oil resources. Their wing in government knows nothing else about governance than the exploitation of the oil resources. Their idea of economic policy and management is the manipulation of oil royalties and prices of petroleum products. Which is why no government bothers about diversifying the economic base apart from oil. The government also operates on the temper of that tiny generation. To them, anything that does not disturb the exploitation of oil, deserves no attention. From this, it is difficult for a state and government built on this foundation to address the monstrosity that is the problem of the Niger-Delta. The minimum concession that can assuage the angst in the Niger-Delta, will certainly sweep away the foundations of this state and its agents. Now, is there anything that suggests that the government Obasanjo heads, and the interests it represents locally and abroad, will compromise on that? The second issue about the character of the country is our predilection to give regional responses to issues. There are sections of the country that will challenge a level of concession to the Niger-Delta. That is if the government means well. The North and parts of the South-West will. Recent examples support this position. After the act establishing the Niger-Delta Development Commission (NDDC), the North brought to the National Assembly, a bill seeking to establish a similar commission to develop areas hosting Nigeria's hydro- electric power resources. That is the Hydro-electric Power Areas Development Commission (HYPADEC) Bill. It is not clear if it has been passed into law, but the balance it seeks in terms of resource allocation suggests perhaps that a disproportionate favour had been done to the Niger-Delta. Recently, too, states in the North and South- West filed a suit challenging the abrogation of the on-shore/off-shore dichotomy act. That has not been decided. What drives this suit is the same as the reason for the bill, before the National Assembly. Now, the question that spins from that is: what kind of relief or solution the Federal Government will concede that will not touch off the sort of foregoing responses? To address the Niger-Delta problem will require a radical change in the allocation of resources to the area. Within the existing framework, this task, to say the truth appears impossible. The beneficiaries of the Nigerian state, as it is, will not support that because not only will it sweep away the sources of their own power and income, it will alter the balance of power in the country. Let's not fool ourselves. Even the Obasanjo Presidency will not contemplate, not alone entertain that prospect. So where does that leave the problem? A first guess is that it may remain unresolved, be allowed to grow more complex and potent enough to continue to erode the foundation of the country. The other reason for pessimism is our dismal experience in conflict management. Nigeria's more recent problems are not exactly new. Not in one case, has any problem been resolved. The resurgence of the demand for a state of Biafra grows from the failure of the country to resolve the issues that led to the civil war. The Dokubo tendency is an offspring of the age-long cry of marginalisation by the Niger-Delta, which was first given a militant expression by the late Isaac Adaka Boro. Quite ominiously, Dokubo's army is named Niger-Delta Volunteer Forces, same name coined by Boro. My position is that even if the government is willing, it is not likely, from history, that someone will sit on this case and ensure that it is resolved. I will be glad if a new temper is made to kill my pessimism. For now, I am afraid. So, what should be done? Frankly, Nigeria's problems can no longer be resolved in the council chambers of the Presidential Villa. With due respect, the chambers of the National Assembly do not appear able to deal with them any more - and that even includes the economic hardship that is giving impetus to the proposed strike. The only option left for this government is to convene a Sovereign National Conference. Any proposed solution that does not involve a restructuring of the foundations of the polity, determined through a forthright negotiation, will only complicate what is on the ground. Only a conference or forum of that nature can uproot the foundations that throw up people like Dokubo, who is heavily supported by his people. Let government utilize this truce and demonstrate it did act to save the people and not the oil.   =============================================================================   Copyright © 2004 This Day. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). =============================================================================