[allAfrica.com] [Africa_2004] Burundi Impasse Makes Even Doves Hawkish Business Day (Johannesburg) NEWS October 20, 2004 Posted to the web October 20, 2004 By Business Day Correspondent Johannesburg Progress has been disappointing since rebel forces terminated their military struggle IT IS now nearly a year since the rebel Forces for the Defence of Democracy (FDD) terminated their military struggle against the authorities in Burundi. The development at the time created optimism that an end to the devastating 10- year ethnic civil war was in sight. Yet progress since then has been disappointing. General elections were meant to be held before the end of this month, according to the country's transition timetable. A referendum on a postconflict constitution, enshrining the rights of the minority Tutsi population, was supposed to take place today . Neither of the deadlines will be honoured this much has been clear for some time, but was only made official late last week when SA's deputy president, Jacob Zuma, and regional leaders met in Nairobi. The situation is such that the original mandate of the transition government will expire at the end of this month. Not only that, but the Forces for National Liberation (FNL), the last remaining active Hutu rebel group after FDD joined the transition process, remains militarily active. So what explains the lack of progress seen over the last year? Arguably, the current deadlock is largely due to a failure to persuade the FNL to end its armed struggle. When Carolyn McAskie, the head of the United Nations Mission in Burundi, arrived in late June, she signalled that an overriding priority was to bring this rebel group inside the peace process. But the FNL resisted such overtures. It orchestrated the massacre of more than 160 (Congolese) Tutsi refugees near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo in mid-August. Following this atrocity, the organisation effectively forfeited any right to be considered as a legitimate political party. This has serious implications: so long as the FNL persists as a military threat, the Tutsi-dominated army cannot realistically return to barracks. Similarly, the largely Hutu FDD, which has co-operated with the army in combating the FNL since ending its own military struggle, has good official reason to remain armed. Yet disarmament and demobilisation (of the regular army and FDD) are important electoral pre requisites. Voting cannot take place when both groups retain a highly visible armed presence. If either side felt it had reason to dispute the poll, the high level of militarisation means it would be easy to take the military option. One of the most disturbing aspects of the impasse is that moderate elements appear to have taken a more hawkish stance in recent months. "At the moment, the (main Hutu and Tutsi) parties are pulling in opposite directions," says Professor Jan van Eck, a specialist on Burundi at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. The main Tutsi political party, Uprona , a key signatory of the Arusha Agreement four years ago a document that paved the way for the transition process refuses to back an official draft constitution. The party believes a powersharing provision ( most of the key political institutions divided 60:40 between Hutus and Tutsi) is not sufficient. Instead it wants guarantees. For example, that most positions reserved for Tutsis go to members of official Tutsi parties, and not to Tutsis belonging to parties tagged "officially Hutu" . As a result, a near-farcical situation has developed, with Uprona and other Tutsi factions offering a rival post-transition constitution. This underscores a persisting fundamental lack of trust between the two communities. After the crisis meeting in Nairobi last week, the poll has been formally postponed until April 22. Additionally, the popular FDD, which had previously said continuation of the transition administration beyond October 31 would be "illegitimate", has given guarded consent to the extended timetable. Nonetheless, there will be doubts as to whether key electoral pre requisites including disarmament and agreement on the post-transition constitution can be fulfilled in time. More immediate is how the country should be governed after October 31. At the summit in Nairobi, the main constitutional draft was endorsed as an interim constitution, but Uprona does not recognise the decision. When there is deadlock over even interim plans, it is difficult to envisage progress on the more substantive issues over the next few months. If polls are again postponed, the FDD is unlikely to bend over backwards next time.   =============================================================================  Copyright © 2004 Business Day. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). =============================================================================