[allAfrica.com] [Africare] The Scramble for Sudan The East African Standard (Nairobi) ANALYSIS January 16, 2005 Posted to the web January 17, 2005 By Kibisu-Kabatesi Nairobi The euphoria of clinching the Sudanese peace settlement has moved into Sudan. Southerners were reported holding wild celebrations in the capital, Khartoum, although Northerners were subdued in their reaction. The staggered implementation agenda - a six weeks lull to publicise the deal, six months to set-up structures for power and wealth sharing and six years experiment in implementation leading to a referendum - will be a test of will for Dr John Garang's SPLM/A and President Hassan el Bashir's National Congress Party government. What is at stake between the parties to the agreement is the battle for the minds of the Sudanese as the clock ticks towards the referendum to decide whether the country will have a unitary federal system or Southern Sudan will become an independent state. Both el Bashir and Garang have hit the campaign trail. Garang sent conciliatory messages through satellite phone broadcasts to crowds in Khartoum. Al Bashir chose a blitz to the heartlands of Garang's support base in the South, in the wake of Garang, who toured the area just before the signing of the accord in Nairobi. His message is that change has come for all Sudanese and he is spearheading it. But the underlying message is that Sudan remains unitary. While the Sudanese have taken the peace accord with measured optimism, the rest of the world is now steeped in a euphoric scramble for a piece of Sudan's wealth. Those who had made earlier deals are intent on confirmation while new entrants are in a hurry to clinch stakes. Sudan has massive economic potential in minerals, agriculture and service provision. After almost 40 years of war and 2 million dead, Southern Sudan is bereft of any infrastructure; transport and communications, health, housing and education facilities need start up construction. Most countries want to cash in on this. Scramble It would seem that Kenya is lagging behind in this scramble. As it single- mindedly mediated the grating negotiations, other countries were laying strategies to take advantage of economic opportunities that the peace agreement would usher in. Already, South African companies have clinched exclusive deals in oil exploration on the heels of Malaysian, American, French and Russian firms. President Thabo Mbeki recently visited Sudan to specifically sign economic cooperation protocols upon the signing of the comprehensive agreement. The only firm commitment that seems to have gone Kenya's way is the construction concession on the 2,500-km Uganda-Kenya-southern Sudan railway project. The fact that Kenya has borne the brunt of the responsibility of the massive refugee influx and the peace process should have been the sounding board to a master plan on post-conflict engagement with the new Sudan. Countries do not engage in the diplomacy of conflict resolution for philanthropy. There is a clear understanding in the international system that states always seek selfish interests even as they camouflage their actions as moral and charitable concerns during negotiations. President Mwai Kibaki's hint in his New Year message that Kenya's quest for 'better economic transformation' informed the search for regional peace is the only indication that economic interest was the driving force of Kenya's efforts. However, other signals emerging from the government are that even as Kenya's regional conflict resolution diplomacy has been driven by potential economic gains, there is no concrete anticipatory strategic plan. Moreover, when the President urged Kenyans to take advantage of the opportunities opening up in Sudan, it was more rhetorical than factual; throughout the Sudan conflict, Kenyan private businesses have been active in the Sudan. The news for Kenyans would have been a rundown of opportunities government is seeking to secure for business to follow. Trade and Industry minister Mukhisa Kituyi has generally spoken of establishing 'trading centres' in Sudan to tap the emerging market as a result of peace. It is part of the apparently haphazard and piecemeal approach to Kenya's potential lifeline that reveals the lack of a coherent roadmap for its interests in the post peace agreement phase. Nor is it surprising that the newly inaugurated National Economic and Social Council (NESC) is still 'planning' to recommend to the government how 'to prepare Kenya to take avenge of opportunities' after the peace agreement. Good intentions It is indeed emerging that for all the good intents, the involvement of Kenya in the search for regional peace might not have been part of a foreign policy master plan. Such a plan would by now enable Kenya's transformation from a negotiator to a business partner. The Ministry of Planning and National Development would sooner unveil a blue print about this transformation than have a carry-over role as Sudan's benefactor. For instance, when the minister, Prof Anyang Nyong'o, says "it is expected that the international community will be able to join with the southern Sudan in the essential task of realising the long awaited reconstruction of the country's infrastructure", he is not speaking about Kenyan economic interests in Sudan. He betrays a mindset still stuck in the patronage and chaperoning of the peace process by Kenya - that it is doing it for others. There is wide apprehension that Kenya may again squander the Sudan opportunity despite the goodwill the way it did with Rwanda. Despite policy shifts from the Francophone to the Anglophone system of education, Kenya could not mobilise its abundant and skilled human resource to offer Rwanda, which had to make do with headhunting through employment agencies for personnel to run its changed education system. The same scenario obtains now. Kenya has excess personnel in all cadres - teachers, nurses and other professions it cannot employ or pays poorly. With aid agencies and the UN marshalling massive financial resources for reconstructing southern Sudan, there ought to be a deliberate way to offer excess human resource to Sudan. Instead, there is a sense in which Kenya seems to be expecting to exploit the goodwill gained for its role in the agreement - moral reciprocity from Khartoum. Such a posture is erroneous as none of the parties to the peace agreement may owe Kenya any form of reparation. Sudan needs reconstruction and whatever business is available will go to the most competitive bidder - including Adventists from the far West.   ===============================================================================   Copyright © 2005 The East African Standard. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). ===============================================================================