[allAfrica.com] [Africa_2005] Kenya Paying a High Price for Neglect The Nation (Nairobi) OPINION July 15, 2005 Posted to the web July 14, 2005 By Paul Goldsmith Nairobi After a spate of resource-based clashes in Marsabit in 2003, the DC, Ali Mbwarali, raised the issue in a baraza: "Your cattle, camels, and goats mingle and graze together peacefully," he observed, "why cannot you people do the same?" The violence died down and did not resume - until earlier this year - and the resurgence of communal conflict was dramatically illustrated by this week's massacre at Turbi. The cost of this violence represent a steadily increasing burden for the region's population and the nation. Development planners and policy-makers have yet to come to grips with the unique challenges of Africa's arid lands, and the conflict in Marsabit is emblematic of a larger trend engulfing the vast rangelands spanning the greater Horn of Africa region. Assessing the costs of conflict is an economistic method for influencing state policy, and certainly in this context, represents a new way of looking at a century-old problem. Sectoral neglect, social exclusion It is a variation on reverse psychology designed to force politicians and governments to recognise that if they cannot fathom the benefits of good governance, then perhaps they may realise there is a price to pay for sectoral neglect, social exclusion, ethnic chauvinism, and political repression. For example: analysts using market rates calculate that livestock rustling costs the Kenyan economy over Sh10 billion annually. In the meantime, the final death toll stemming from the latest incident in Marsabit is sure to push the district's annual fatalities due to conflict over the 200 mark. By one local criterion for compensation, Marsabit (and Kenya) has, without lifting a finger so to speak, lost a cool Sh20 million since January. This does not include other currencies of spilt milk; and the calculus of compensation arguably undervalues the true value of human capital considerably. Still, the Sh20m debit exceeds the cost of establishing a security presence sufficient to curtail the raiding. Yet this is only part of the equation. Communal conflict is only one variable in a matrix responsible for the declining economic fortunes and social welfare of the region. Conflict does increase the transaction costs of doing business in the north, but poor infrastructure and communication equally contribute to these costs. Economics and the security problem have become locked in a self-reinforcing cycle underpinning the pastoralist areas into a downward spiral. Price for meat and livestock products remained static over the 1990s, while increased transaction costs due to insecurity, rising fuel prices, and infrastructure decline ate into producer profits. The amount of maize a lowland herder receives in exchange for a cow continues to decline. Factor for the steadily reducing number of total livestock units per household in places like Kajiado, Laikipia, and Kacheliba - and a larger pattern begins to emerge from clashes like Maai Mahiu, the ranch invasions of last August, and the militancy of the lowland Pokot. The contrasting reactions by governments, and the fact that the Turbi massacre is only the most recent spike in a phenomenon claiming a growing number of dead and injured citizens from Marakwet to Turkana and North-Eastern Province to Pokot underscores the qualitative difference between red ink and human blood in these parts. Unfortunately, empirical fact is usually among the casualties in the aftermath of such incidents. The night-time news reports traced the Gabra-Borana tit-for- tat to friction over land, pasture, and water. Competition for natural resources is always present in these situations, but a number of contradictory observations suggest it is also the most convenient scapegoat here. The Gabra and Borana are traditional allies who speak the same language. The Gabra are camel people, the Borana raise cattle, and they maintain a long- standing symbiosis that includes mutual assistance during episodes of environmental stress. During the long drought of 1999-2001, for example, many Gabra migrated across the border and the same parties involved in the present conflict peacefully coexisted on the Borana plateau. The Borans of Marsabit are actually agro-pastoral farmers and urbanites who do not compete on the range. Marsabit town and its environs are now the main foci of competition between these groups. In regard to this context, we might note that in the space of six years Marsabit town went from a five petrol station to a two-station truck-stop on the great northern highway- and that there are rumours that a Gabra candidate may challenge for the traditionally Borana Saku seat in Parliament. Original source of blood orgy But the original source of this particular blood orgy appears to lie elsewhere. The elections in Ethiopia first reportedly sparked the initial exchange of attacks. Anti-Zenawi elements accusing the Gabra of migrating across the border to vote for the government launched a raid on Ferole, a small settlement on the Kenya- Ethiopia border. This was followed by attacks on Borana settled in the Hurri Hills. The sequence of events is consistent with reports from Addis Ababa. Observers in Ethiopia noted that the opposition, both surprised and emboldened by the number of votes they garnered, shared responsibility for the riots erupting after the polls. Pre-existing and ongoing political feuds fuelled the fire, but the State can no longer blame political incitement for its own shortcomings if it is serious about protecting citizens' lives. Talk is cheap. So are guns, and the Government simply does not have the soldiers nor logistical means nor the finances to secure its peoples right to life. The cost of deploying helicopters and landrovers is rising apace with the price of petrol. Although Marsabit is Kenya's driest district, it offers a range of possibilities that can enhance the country's economic well-being. The fact that Sahel nations whose land is ecologically comparable to northern Kenya rival and surpass Kenya's per capita GNP suggests it is time to rethink national policy and practical responses on the ground. Dr Goldsmith is an anthropologist who does research on arid land issues   =============================================================================   Copyright © 2005 The Nation. All rights reserved. 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