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Be Afraid, France Returns to Africa

New Vision (Kampala)
OPINION
December 1, 2006
Posted to the web December 4, 2006
Kampala
Jean Luis Bruguière, an 'independent' French judge, on November 20 sought
arrest warrants and consequent trial of President Paul Kagame for his alleged
complicity in the death of former president Juvenal Habyarimana.
Several other Rwanda government officials are also indicted along with Kagame.
The accusation is that Kagame and others ordered the shooting down of a plane
in which Habyarimana and all aboard the plane, including Burundi president
Cyprian Ntaryamira, died. And that because the genocide started immediately
after Habyarimana's death, therefore, the people who ordered his killing are
responsible for the genocide. Pure conjecture.
However, for fear of being bogged down by the conspiracy theories about who
ordered the shooting of (or who shot) the plane, the facts on the ground at the
time showed that plans for mass killing of the Tutsi were under way long before
the downing of the plane.
My recollection is that the RPF had earlier warned the international community
about a plan to carry out mass killings even before Habyarimana's death.
Immediately after Habyarimana's death, lists of Tutsi and moderate Hutu
candidates for killing were issued.
There had also been an unprecedented increase in the import of machetes
(pangas). Otherwise, without a comprehensive plan, it is logical that the
killings could not have been executed in a short period of 100 days.
But all said, the rather untenable accusations against Kagame and his
colleagues should not distract us from the broader picture of France's new
foreign policy in Africa.
The objective of the accusations against the leadership of the Government of
Rwanda is part of a grand plan for France's comeback in Africa. I will explain.
In the late 1980s, there was a change of government in Upper Volta (now Burkina
Faso) that brought to power charismatic leader Thomas Sankara.
The process that brought Sankara to power was home grown military struggle and
there were fears that this could be the beginning of a trend that could sweep
through French West Africa.
Sankara was later to be killed in unexplained circumstances blamed on the
infighting in his party. However, some observers have blamed Sankara's death on
France intelligence operations.
In the early 1990s, the French lost their influence in Chad when Idris Debby,
helped by the Libyans and the Sudanese, ousted Hissen Habre.
The French were literally chased from Chad by Libya. However, the biggest blow
to France's influence took place in Rwanda when a government they had supported
collapsed under the weight of the RPF rebellion.
France used its influence in international political power brokerage to
organise Operation Turquoise whose objective was to salvage the fledgling
government from total annihilation.
With the international sympathy the post-genocide government in Rwanda enjoyed
at the time, France could not even say a thing about the developments in Zaire
(now the DRC) that led to the ousting of President Mobutu Sesse Seko.
With this experience, it is therefore not surprising that France has had
limited or no influence in almost all processes aimed at ending conflicts in
formerly French spheres of influence.
The process to end Burundi's civil war was handled by the regional powers with
little or no input from France.
The settlement process of the DRC conflict has had very minimal influence from
France, not to forget mention of being on the losing side of the Rwanda war
between 1990 and 1994.
The participation of France in these processes has been behind the façade of
the European Union and the United Nations.
But that does not mean that France gave up on its interests in Africa. Since
the end of the genocide, France has made every attempt to make a come back in
Africa.
The intervention in Ivory Coast and the recent reports that French troops are
involved in the conflict in Central African Republic give a clear view
testimony to France's re-entry into Africa, albeit haphazard. It is this
picture that offers a contextual understanding of the ongoing row between
France and Rwanda.
But the French intelligence, Judge Bruguier and the French government know that
it is difficult or impossible to try Kagame at the International Criminal
Tribunal on Rwanda (ICTR) now.
The idea would not win the favour of international public opinion because
Kagame represents the post-genocide hope and future stability of Rwanda.
What then is France's game plan then?
With a teetering government whose leaders face trial, France would regain the
initiative in Rwanda.
Which initiative? With a psychologically distabilised leadership in Rwanda,
this would also give a psychological boost to rebels opposed to the Kigali
leadership.
The truth is that France is not interested in having influence in Rwanda;
having burnt their hands in 1994.
When I lived in Kigali, all my contacts in the diplomatic community said there
was no attempt by France to endear itself to Rwanda.
But the fact that the inquiry into France's role in the genocide could lead to
the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the rotten tomatoes France face may
pick from the ICJ would affect its image in Africa and elsewhere.
So, in spite of a deliberate policy of keeping its distance from Kigali, France
still views Rwanda as a stumbling block in the grand Franco-African come back.
The objective of the judge' actions therefore, could be aimed at intimidating
the Kigali leadership into going slow on the on-going inquiry into France's
role in the genocide.
Even without following the trial any farther, France has achieved something:
the energy the government of Rwanda has used to respond to Judge Bruguier's
funny accusations is tremendous. And needless to say, this row will most likely
reach the international political power brokerage in New York (UN) where France
may win a plea bargain. It adds up.
The writer is a journalist.
John Nagenda will be back next week


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