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The Dangers of SA's Anti-Americanism

Business Day (Johannesburg)
OPINION
February 28, 2007
Posted to the web February 28, 2007

By Jonathan Katzenellenbogen
Johannesburg
SA's relations with the U.S. in the era of President Thabo Mbeki have never
been good; but they are now rapidly deteriorating. On the Iranian nuclear
issue, the global war on terrorism, United Nations (UN) reform and the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict, SA is becoming increasingly strident in its
opposition to the U.S. And recently there have been signs of fury in Pretoria
over the number of South African Muslims refused entry into the U.S. The
listing of the Dockrat cousins on a U.S. terrorism watch list is a point of
serious contention. If the climate had been better, this might have been sorted
out fairly easily.
What accounts for this deterioration in relations is that SA now feels far more
confident on the international stage as a temporary member of the UN Security
Council. In addition, Pretoria has a messianic foreign policy with an avowal to
counter the U.S. by striving for a multipolar world.
After our first democratic elections in 1994, the signs were that the
relationship between the U.S. and SA would be warm, if not close. A binational
commission was established and met regularly, but was scrapped in 2001, soon
after President George Bush took office, and the relationship has continued its
decline.
The U.S. never got a piece of the multibillion-rand arms deal, a signal that SA
felt far closer to Europe. However, U.S.-made F-16s instead of Gripen fighters
and more C-130s instead of the next-generation European A400M military air
transporters may have been a far cheaper option.
Official visits and regular talks have been kept up but signs are that initial
enthusiasm has given way to divisions and now even distrust. In December, Bush
met Mbeki in Washington, followed by Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma,
but little was revealed about these talks, an indication that there were
probably few shared positions. There has been no shouting match so far but
things may be headed that way as SA's rhetoric becomes more forceful.
Last week, Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad suggested the U.S. had created a
far more "volatile, dangerous, and unpredictable environment" in which SA had
to carry out its foreign policy. He also accused the U.S. and Israel of
frustrating efforts towards peace in the Middle East.
SA would prefer that the US was not establishing an Africa Command for U.S.
forces, although a number of U.S. generals and admirals have been visiting of
late, seeking co-operation.
Much of the rest of the world also has poor relations with the U.S., due to the
disaster in Iraq and fears over what is perceived as a gradual move to attack
Iran. But it can reasonably be expected that those relations will improve when
Bush goes. So with Washington's declining influence, does it really matter if
SA's relationship with the U.S. is less than perfect?
The answer is yes. Good relations open options and allow greater flexibility.
Opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and expression of fears over a possible
invasion of Iran are widespread and not threatening to our relations with
Washington, since it is a song being sung worldwide.
The real sore points for Washington are issues such as SA voting with Russia
and China to protect the military regime in Burma against a non-punitive, U.S.-
sponsored UN Security Council resolution. On the Iranian nuclear issue, SA
talks to Iran regularly about the standoff on its uranium enrichment programme,
without delivering a solution. On Zimbabwe, Bush said Mbeki was the "point man"
in working towards a solution but in the nearly four years since these words
were used, nothing has been delivered.
The problem for SA is that the next administration in Washington will take a
similar view of these issues. The result is that SA could fast be losing
influence in Washington in areas that could count, such as trade. Democrats are
already asking why SA should be given free access to the U.S. market in a range
of goods when it is a middle-income country and there is no reciprocity for
U.S. goods.
Time will tell if the relationship improves in the post-Mbeki and post-Bush
eras, but signs are that anti-U.S. sentiment is well entrenched in SA. The U.S.
sees SA as one of the region's four strategic players with Kenya, Ethiopia and
Nigeria, to be consulted and wooed on many issues. But SA's stance has become
sufficiently predictable that the U.S. may simply not view it as necessary to
lobby SA. With predictability, influence is lost.
Katzenellenbogen is international affairs editor.


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