[allAfrica.com] Kony's Safest Route From the Bush is Through Juba New Vision (Kampala) COLUMN 21 April 2008 Posted to the web 22 April 2008 By Nobert Mao Kampala LETTER FROM GULU IF the truth be told, there were already indications that the LRA leader, Joseph Kony, was not going to show up to append his signature to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Indeed most of those who went for the flopped ceremony did so because they did not want Kony to have any excuses for not showing up. Thus those who went should be lauded for putting the ball squarely in Kony's court. The fate of the Juba talks is on the lips of everyone. What went wrong? Why didn't Kony sign? Is this the end of the road for the Juba talks? What more can be done to keep the talks on track? How can a man who will not show up in Ri-Kwangba to sign an agreement be expected to cross three borders (CAR, Congo and Sudan) to return to Uganda in compliance with the terms of the Juba Agreement? The questions were endless. They remain endless. The answers remain elusive. There are too many variables in the process. Many cards are still in the hands of the rebels in the bush. Some are with President Museveni while a few are split in the hands of the ICC and geopolitical players in the region. There are also the perennial manoeuvers of those fishing in troubled waters. We worry that their pull on the rebels is proving stronger than the pull of Juba. And of course rumours are rife. The zooming of two jet fighters over Gulu was seen as the first sign that the dogs of war were loosed. These turned out to be escort planes for Museveni on his way to Juba! Truth, it is said, is the first casualty of war. But sometimes rumours are distortions of truth. They may not be comparable to the truth but they may be a shadow of the truth - exaggerated but not wholly false. At any rate this has been our experience. That was the case when the rumour of Vincent Otti's death started filtering from Garamba. Eventually it turned out to be true. I have been struggling to find the words to express the feelings of our people on the ground. English words are not enough. But I have chanced on a Greek word, aporia, which seems appropriate. It is a Greek word that literally means a 'pathless path'. It means being at a loss. This is a feeling one gets after you follow a path and later realise that it has disappeared. Doubt ensues. There is uncertainty about how to move forward. But all this begs the question. Why this uncertainty? Joseph Kony must be pacing about in his hideout trying to make a decision for the moment of truth has come. Like Hamlet's soliloquy: "To be or not to be " his messages now show mixed emotions. The last time I spoke to him, I told him that the world has invested a lot of effort in Juba in order to determine for sure who does not want peace to prevail in northern Uganda. And from the moment Kony and Museveni agreed to the talks in Juba they became like baited fish. They can be given the longest string to roam in the waters but they remain hooked. For Museveni, his protestations against Juba was in the form of several deadlines he gave in the early days of the talks, while for Kony it is now his alleged ignorance of what has been agreed to by his emissaries! Museveni has read the signs right and has decided that he should play peacemaker par excellence. In that way, Kony's hesitation only serves to make Museveni look like a peacemaker while Kony is cast as a way-monger. Why is it that Kony, a man who has eluded capture and destruction for decades, is suddenly unable to read the signs of the times correctly? How come that a man who ran rings around the UPDF sowing frustration in the national army is now losing control of events? There are three things to examine. First, signing the comprehensive peace agreement is his call. No one else can take that call. It is the supreme test of his commitment to Juba. Whatever sense of honour he has is now under scrutiny. Secondly, his protestations about the need to have the provisions on accountability explained to him in greater detail means that he now knows that he bears ultimate responsibility for whatever the LRA has been doing. This is the part of the negotiations, which I believe has been most talked about. By providing for a special division of the high court, Juba has sent a message to Kony that he will not be a free man - hence his rhetorical question about the role of the special division of the high court. In the past he has said since he has not been the only one fighting, why should he be the only one targeted? Museveni had foreseen this and to his credit has never minced his words about the trade-off between peace and trial justice. He has said let Kony stop the war and in return get amnesty. Simple. In addition he should go through traditional forms of restorative (not punitive or retributive) justice. Peace plus remorse and forgiveness equals justice. But the third factor is more problematic. It is about trust. The UPDF is not taking chances. The LRA commanders have been calling and telling us of UPDF presence in their vicinity. But the LRA is also not taking chances. They are hobnobbing with their old allies. It is thus no surprise that Chadian rebels have been spotted in the LRA camp! Almost two years and about $10m down the road is Juba not exerting a strong enough pull on the parties? How can we give the parties the incentive to spend less time investing in their respective Plan Bs? As community leaders we have told Kony that his best way out of the bush is via Juba. Any other option is a mirage - however attractive. If Agenda 3 has to be reworked so be it. The writer is Gulu district LC 5 chairperson ======================================================================================== Copyright © 2008 New Vision. All rights reserved. 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