Today
it is obvious to anybody that the main result of the operation by the US
and Western alliance in Afghanistan is not the defeat of the Taliban (which
is quite questionable, especially in the light of the latest events), as
the main center of the political power in the country, but the decentralization
of the state, and chaos. Centrifugal areas on influence have been formed
in the country. In general, they have a local character, however it does
not diminish the fact that Afghanistan as a whole organism does not practically
exist anymore. And at the present time it is represented by the so-called
Northern Alliance (that split up in separate hostile groups) on one side,
and Pashtun tribes (between whom there is no unity either) on the other side.
The main figures in Northern Alliance are:
Representatives
of ethnic Tajiks - Mohammad Fahim and former president of the country Burhanuddin
Rabbani; former governor of Herat province Ismail Khan; Leader of ethnic
Uzbeks and former Communist general Abdul Rashid Dostum; Pashtun commander
who fought on the side of the Northern Alliance and former governor of Nangarkhar
province Hadji Abdul Kadyr; and Hazari commander Abdul Kerim Halili;
On the other pole of the influence are leaders and elders of Pashtun tribes of Southern and South-Eastern Afghanistan.
As
for today Afghanistan is actually divided into Tajik-Uzbek-Hazari Northern
region and Southern Pashtu region. Northern Alliance is in turn split into
Uzbek, Hazari and Tajik parts, who constantly fight one another. Southern
region is divided between Pashtun tribes that consist of supporters and opponents
of the Taliban. However, among them there are those who remain neutral and
do not wish to get involved in the ongoing events.
The role and place
of the institution of tribal elders. The reason for such correlation of forces
is that the prevailing part of Pashtun field commanders have voluntarily
left the political arena of Afghanistan back in the mid-90-s (for example,
the leader of Islamic Party of Afghanistan Gulbuddin Hekmatyar settled in
Iran, Abdul Haq in Yemen, etc.), and only an insignificant part joined the
Taliban. After the recent defeat of the Taliban by the Americans, the potential
and the might of Pashtu national nucleus mainly remains among their influential
tribal leaders, for the most part from the mountain tribes of South and South-East
of the country.
That particular region is a natural place of settlement,
a historically formed outpost of the Pashtu, and a domain of many Afghan
rulers. And this is the part of Afghanistan that has traditionally been characterized
by militant nationalism, as historians claim. And on our behalf we would
like to add that the region also has deep Islamic roots by which the Afghans
were able to unite the country and maintain their independence at all times.
According
to historians, the main reason that explains the strong positions of the
tribal leaders lies in the very social structure of the Pashtu. As orientalist
V.Plastun wrote, - «Pashtun tribe is a social group that strongly differs
from other similar groups of Afghan society by their language, culture and
specific traditions. It does not necessarily have to be organized politically.
The Pashtu are maintaining the feeling of community that originates in the
Pushtunvali Code of Honor and Behavior acknowledged by all, and in the common
roots from one ancestor». The Pashtu are strongly centered ethnically and
have their own originality.
The very history of Afghan statehood speaks
about the important role and influence by the institution of Pashtu tribal
leaders and elders in the life of Afghan society. For example, all the Emirs
and Kings of the Afghan State, starting from 1747 (the year when the centralized
Afghan state was founded) up until 1973, were from Pashtu tribes. And before
the revolution of 1978 that was later called «the April, or Saur Revolution»,
the political stability in the country was maintained by the balance between
the central government with their armed forces and the loyalty of Pashtu
tribal leaders. According to the events of those years, further unbalance
led to the confrontation with the central government initiated by the tribes
that thereby opened the gates for easy penetration of the armed opposition
from the territory of Pakistan. With the support of Pashtu tribal leaders
and elders, during a comparatively short period of time, the opposition would
be able to mobilize their main forces and establish a firm financial and
economic support, as well as the weapons supply from neighboring Pakistan.
However
when the Taliban came to power, the role of tribal leaders started to diminish
and yield to the united centralized government. At the current stage, the
institution of tribal elders is needed again. This time by the Americans
who were trying to set them against the Taliban with the help of finances
and political intrigues. In some cases they succeeded. However very many
tribes demonstrated their hostility towards the US.
The latest events
in Afghanistan show that a sudden success of the Western coalition in the
beginning of the war is gradually being replaced by everyday military routine
of a guerilla war, that has the capability to suck the winner into the swamp
of boggy controversy and slowly kill him. Time goes on. The war is aggravating.
The enemy is demonstrating his ability to survive. The number of victims
is growing. The prospects of victory are becoming more hazy.