Musharraf Is Working Hard To Strengthen Vajpayee
uploaded 07 Dec 2003Musharraf Is Working Hard To Strengthen Vajpayee
Uploaded Dec 6th 2003
The recent unexpected electoral victories for the BJP in state elections will provide a boost for the US in its efforts to urgently resolve the Kashmir issue through its agents Vajpayee and Musharraf. The electoral victory comes on the back of a flurry of confidence building measures (CBMs) announced initially by India and backed up by Musharraf. The timing of the CBMs by Vajpayee and Musharraf followed by a unilateral ceasefire by Pakistan and the quick response by India to match it allowed the BJP to turn around what were considered safe seats for Congress.
On the 4th of December, 2003, the Associated Press commenting on BJP's electoral success wrote:
"The BJP may have been helped by recent peace initiatives with rival Pakistan, including a cease-fire in disputed Kashmir and the resumption of air links."
Vajpayee was excessively praised in the Indian and Pakistani press for his shrewdness in responding to the CBMs portraying the reason for reciprocation as aiding India's interest by promoting peace and harmony. Vajpayee was praised in India for de-linking any peace overtures with the issue of Kashmir whilst Musharraf was insistent on the centrality of Kashmir to any negotiation, which even the Pakistan Foreign Office seemed to be at odds with it.
Additionally, the crackdown on jihadists and the sealing of their offices especially in Pakistani Controlled Kashmir, under the guise of rooting out extremism and sectarianism was a bold gesture by Musharraf in order to portray to the Indian public that Vajpayee's threats on cross border terrorism were working.
Those criticising Musharraf for overlooking the fact that the Indians were not reciprocating on Kashmir but merely promoting Indian external interests through aviation, bus, rail and maritime agreements seemed to have missed the point. The timing of the current CBMs were not intended to address the Kashmir issue directly, but to bail Vajpayee out of a difficult internal situation. The US needs a strong Vajpayee internally to quicken its regional plan of bringing peace between India and Pakistan by solving the Kashmir issue, in order that it can prepare the investment climate in both countries for its trade corridor to Central Asia and towards its policy of strategic encirclement for a possible conflict with China.
The solution to the Kashmir issue is a complex one since Kashmir is regarded as an integral part of India. The Hindu nationalist power base of the BJP, the RSS and the VHP have criticised the BJP for not laying out a clear policy as regards the solution of Kashmir, but for election purposes Vajpayee needed to show strength by maintaining Kashmir as non-negotiable and an integral part of India. Additionally, Vajpayee separated the Indian reciprocation of the ceasefire from that of fighting cross border infiltration by Kashmiri jihadists from Pakistan.
Despite this, on the eve of elections Musharraf handed Vajpayee an additional boost by offering a reciprocated troop withdrawal from Kashmir. This is despite the fact that Musharraf had stated openly that the road to Kashmir was a long and complicated one and not in the immediate term.
The sudden idea of troop withdrawal was obviously going to be rejected by India. The aim of the suggestion however was to strengthen the BJPs position on the eve of elections by allowing Vajpayee to remain strong on Kashmir and to buy time with the hawks and Hindu extremist elements within the BJP and more pertinently the RSS and VHP.
The time required is what Musharraf has laid down in the four stage process dictated to him by Washington. First, Pakistan and India should start a dialogue; second they should go for a composite approach for the resolution of issues including the Kashmir dispute; third they eliminate whatever is unacceptable to Pakistan, India and the Kashmiris and lastly go for a solution to the Kashmir dispute, acceptable to all three parties Pakistan, India and the Kashmiri people.
Vajpayee has not called for snap elections on the back of the current results as the BJP is still weakened and the Congress had good success in the capital. The US through various parties will work to strengthen Vajpayee while simultaneously gaining elements in the RSS-VHP and APHC in order to realise and quicken the solution to the Kashmir dispute.
In the immediate term, the election boost and the CBM's have given the green light for Vajpayee to confirm his participation at the SAARC summit on January 4th, 2004 in Islamabad
Source: forecastpakistan.com
